According to the latest note sent to investors by JPMorgan, one of the major US-based banks, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has weakened significantly due to the impact of rising geopolitical tensions around Iran. Current data has revealed that these two assets, which generally act together against the global crisis, have recently been priced in different directions.
The Balance Has Changed in the ETF Market
JPMorgan analysts emphasized that there has been a serious divergence in fund flows in gold and Bitcoin ETFs since February 27. Since the beginning of the period, approximately 2.7 percent of the portfolio of SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest gold investment fund, has experienced an outflow. During the same period, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust product achieved net inflows of 1.5 percent in portfolio size.
According to General Manager Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, one of the JPMorgan analysts who pointed out this picture, while gold funds were leading in the first months of the year, it seems that the balances have changed in favor of Bitcoin as of March. Participants’ capital preference revealed that they turned to Bitcoin ETFs as a safe haven during the Middle East tensions.
It was stated that institutional capital flow to spot Bitcoin ETFs is ahead of traditional precious metal investment and that this change in risk appetite reflects the general view of the market.
JPMorgan’s investor note stated, “In this process, there is a significant capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin. The interest in Bitcoin ETFs indicates that the digital gold discourse is getting stronger in the crisis environment.”
Institutional Investors and Risk Aversion Strategies
JPMorgan’s assessment shows that most of the demand for ETFs comes from individual investors and portfolio advisors, while a more cautious stance is taken in corporate derivatives markets. While hedge funds are directly reducing their Bitcoin positions, there is a divergence between this approach and the increasing demand in the ETF space.
During this period, the short position rate for iShares Bitcoin Trust increased, while short positions decreased for SPDR Gold Shares. This table indicates that hedge funds hold positions in the Bitcoin market for hedging purposes and in gold for defensive purposes.
Individual and professional investors are starting to see Bitcoin as a store of value; Some corporate players are approaching the rise cautiously. While downside protection demands in Bitcoin derivative products are increasing, continuous inflows in the spot ETF market stand out.
Resistance Levels and Market Dynamics in Bitcoin Price
Recently, the Bitcoin price has been hovering above the $70,000 level despite geopolitical concerns and the volatile course in derivative markets. Market participants state that ETF inflows have continued with strong momentum since the beginning of 2024, during which the size collected by the largest Bitcoin ETF has almost doubled the increase of the gold ETF in the same period.
It is stated that if the uptrend continues, ETF investments target the $80,000 resistance zone. If macroeconomic risks come into play or market volatility increases, the $64,000 level is seen as the technical threshold for a downward breakout.
It is stated by market experts that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and developments in energy prices will test the safe haven nature of both gold and Bitcoin.
