Over the last year, the most frequently asked question in macroeconomic markets has been why Bitcoin is lagging behind gold. In 2025, gold rose 65 percent, becoming one of the highest-earning assets of the last decade, and reached an all-time high of $ 5,608 at the beginning of 2026. By contrast, Bitcoin is trading around $70,000, down 44 percent from its peak of $126,000. This separation between both entities brought the sustainability and possible change of direction of the ‘digital gold’ discourse back to the agenda.
Insights from Lyn Alden and Fidelity
Economic and macro strategist Lyn Alden suggests that the current gap does not constitute a reason against Bitcoin, but rather signals the beginning of a new upward wave. According to Alden, a pendulum effect has been observed between gold and Bitcoin in the past, and he is of the opinion that Bitcoin may come to the fore again in the current cycle. Emphasizing that gold is currently traded in an ‘enthusiastic’ mood, while Bitcoin is generally subject to a negative perception, Alden points out that such contrasts can create a suitable environment for market opportunities.
Similarly, in the 2026 report prepared by Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper, the assessment that gold’s strong performance in 2025 is a historical rarity and that it would not be surprising for Bitcoin to come to the fore afterwards stands out. The report also states that both assets look at the same macroeconomic conditions and stand out in investor preference as a store of value outside the traditional financial system.
Fund Flow Change in ETFs
The first concrete change in market dynamics began to manifest itself with movements in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). An outflow of $3 billion was observed from GLD, the largest gold-backed ETF in the USA, on Wednesday. It is emphasized that this single-day outflow is the largest in the last two years. However, there were record inflows into gold ETFs in the previous two months.
The opposite movement was noted in Bitcoin ETFs. As of March 6, 30-day net flow turned into an inflow of $273 million; On February 6, there was an outflow of $1.9 billion. During the same period, Bitcoin ETFs added a net 4,021 Bitcoins, while gold ETFs’ assets decreased from 1.4 million ounces to 621,100 ounces.
Joe Consorti, Horizon company’s chief growth officer, summarized this transformation as follows:
“While gold is stagnating, Bitcoin is rising rapidly. With the US economy gaining momentum and risk appetite increasing, Bitcoin’s return on a percentage basis in the last month is about to exceed gold’s. The expected rotation from risk aversion to risk orientation may have begun.”
Different Time Perspectives and Macro Foundations
For some market actors, this transformation is not yet finalized. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, states that although he has a target of $ 250,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year, he is not in a hurry to invest at the moment and expects central banks to increase the money supply again:
“If I had $1 right now, I wouldn’t invest in Bitcoin; I would wait. I will watch as central banks start printing money as a buy signal.”
Hayes argues that the conflict in the Middle East may push the US Federal Reserve to implement additional incentives, and that such a policy change will be the main driving force for Bitcoin.
The main factor that maintains the medium and long-term attractiveness of both assets is the unsustainable debt burden of the USA. According to Fidelity’s analysis, the US national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, making interest payments one of the largest items in the budget. Historically, the tight correlation between Bitcoin and the global money supply shows that Bitcoin has an advantage, especially when monetary policy eases.
In summary, it is stated that while gold reacts more strongly to short-term shocks, Bitcoin is more sensitive to liquidity cycles. While the rise of gold in 2025 is largely explained by the effect of central bank purchases and reserve diversification, it is predicted that the same trend may support Bitcoin in the medium term.
