With the recent price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency markets, discussions continue regarding the long-term chart structure that determines the large-scale direction of Bitcoin. The new monthly analysis by EGRAG Crypto highlights that Bitcoin is currently moving within the ascending parallel channel that has continued since 2014, and the current correction is in line with historical cycle patterns.
Twelve-Year Ascending Channel and Cycle Dynamics
Bitcoin’s monthly dollar chart shows that the same logarithmic ascending channel has been maintained since 2014. In each major cycle, price bottoms approached the lower boundary of the channel, while the peaks reached the upper zone of the channel, followed by major pullbacks. Currently, Bitcoin is trading in the upper-middle part of the channel at $70,433. While this position is more in the middle of the macro tops observed in the past, the upper band of the channel currently corresponds to the region above $200,000.
Mid-Cycle Fixes and Historical Examples
EGRAG Crypto examines three different mid-cycle corrections in Bitcoin’s history. In these previous corrections, the price; It decreased by 15 percent in the first and 36 percent in the second and 2021 cycle. These declines created a temporary peak perception in the price at that time, but the upward trend continued after each one. In the current situation, the decrease from $ 108,000 to $ 60,000 represents a decline of approximately 44 percent. Although it is deeper than previous corrections, it is noteworthy that it is in line with the correction range on a logarithmic scale.
Fibonacci Targets and Possible Scenarios
In the analysis, it is stated that the current structure has three different levels of Fibonacci expansion. The target is $100,000 at the 1.272 level, $123,000 at the 1.414 level and $167,000 at the 1.618 level. Bitcoin briefly tested $100,000 and although it approached $123,000, it has not yet reached the $167,000 level. In the Fibonacci methodology, the 1.618 level is considered the natural completion point, and in this respect, it is stated that the current movement has not yet been completed.
Two main scenarios are highlighted in the EGRAG Crypto analysis. Giving the first scenario a 60-70 percent probability, it is predicted to stay within the channel, exceed the $ 74,000 threshold and rise towards the levels of 100,000, 123,000 and 167,000 dollars, respectively. The $74,000 resistance is considered a critical threshold for bullish confirmation. Bitcoin is currently about 5 percent below this level, and a weekly close above this resistance could indicate the end of the correction.
In the second alternative scenario, there is a risk of a deeper correction with a probability of 30-40 percent. In this case, the price is expected to retest the $38,000–$43,000 range. This price band corresponds to the area where the 0.618 and 0.702 Fibonacci retracement levels of the current cycle meet. It also coincides with the lower band of the channel and last year’s consolidated support levels.
Another element that stands out on Bitcoin’s long-term chart is the possibility of a transition to a new liquidity-based period shaped by increased institutional interest and ETF investments, instead of the traditional four-year cycle. According to EGRAG Crypto, this structural change reduces the validity of traditional analyzes in terms of cyclical timing, while the main channel structure remains important in terms of direction determination.
As a result, the channel structure has persisted for twelve years, the Fibonacci targets have not been fully achieved, and the current correction is consistent with the pattern so far. EGRAG Crypto assesses that the outlook remains bullish in terms of technical structure.
