Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, recently explained why he is avoiding Bitcoin for now despite being bullish on its long-term future.
Speaking on the CoinStories podcast, Hayes said that even if he had just $1 to invest today, he would still prefer to wait before buying Bitcoin.
Here’s what is driving him to stay away from Bitcoin right now.
Hayes: “I Would Wait”
In a recent interview on CoinStories, Hayes said that if he only had $1 to invest today, he would not buy Bitcoin yet. Instead, he plans to wait for clearer signals from global monetary policy.
He stated,
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin?
No. I would wait.”
Analyzing the current scenario, Hayes believes that rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could eventually force the Federal Reserve and other central banks to inject more liquidity into the financial system to support government spending.
In simple terms, this will be the real buying opportunity when the Federal Reserve and other central banks begin printing money again, as increased liquidity has historically driven major Bitcoin rallies. Until then, he suggests investors stay patient instead of trying to guess the market bottom.
Why Bitcoin Could Drop Below $60K
Hayes also warned that geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic stress could trigger broad sell-offs across both stocks and crypto markets. In such risk-off scenarios, Bitcoin could briefly fall below the $60K level as investors move toward safer assets.
Because of these uncertainties, Hayes believes waiting for clearer signs of liquidity expansion could be a smarter strategy than rushing into the market.
The analyst also believes Bitcoin behaves like a “liquidity alarm,” meaning its price strongly reacts to the amount of money circulating in the financial system. When liquidity tightens, crypto markets often struggle.
At the same time, Hayes pointed out that the rise in Gold prices signals declining confidence in dollar-based assets. According to him, many central banks are increasing their gold reserves to hedge against potential weakness in the U.S. dollar and protect national reserves.
Long-Term Outlook: $100K Bitcoin?
Despite the cautious short-term stance, Hayes remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. He believes that if global fiat liquidity expands significantly, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 within the next few years.
However, he also warned traders against unrealistic expectations, noting that “The market’s job isn’t to make you money, it’s to take your money.”
For Hayes, patience and macro awareness remain key as the next phase of the crypto cycle unfolds.
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