In the cryptocurrency market, the sharp retreat in Bitcoin price attracts attention. On the first trading day of the week, BTC price briefly dropped to $66,010. The impact of increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on crypto assets in recent days triggered this movement. On the same day, crude oil prices exceeded the threshold of $110 per barrel and increased by nearly 30 percent. Volatility in oil prices increases volatility in global risk asset markets.
Risk Perception Is Rising: Bitcoin and Stocks Are Moving in Parallel Again
The correlation between Bitcoin and stocks has strengthened significantly in recent days. The rapid rise in oil prices also led to sharp sales in Asian markets. Japan’s Nikkei index fell by 7 percent and South Korea’s KOSPI index fell by 6 percent. Institutional investors have also become risk averse, with a total net outflow of $576.6 million from Bitcoin ETFs last week.
This sharp selling wave increased the selling pressure in both crypto and traditional markets. Signals in the bond market show that macro risks continue. Analysts state that if this decline in risk appetite continues, Bitcoin may have difficulty acting independently of stocks.
Technical View: Price Movements at Critical Supports
Technical analysis reveals that Bitcoin is testing key support points by falling below the $70,000 level. Currently, the price is hovering near $66,000. This decline pushed BTC back to pre-surge levels recently.
If the seller’s trend continues and the price falls below $62,300, Fibonacci supports at $56,800 and $52,300 may come to the fore. The 50-day moving average is located at $77,200 and acts as a strong resistance.
According to on-chain data, a decrease in the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is observed. The fact that long-term investors do not want to sell at these levels may limit a possible downward movement along with the decreasing supply.
In order for the downward trend to be deemed invalid and the rise to begin again; It is stated that the price should exceed the $ 72,600 level and the 50-day moving average.
Oil Rise and Fed Expectations
The rapid rise in oil prices brought inflation expectations back to the agenda. The increase in crude oil prices reached 72 percent in the last month. It is said in the markets that rising energy costs may increase consumer prices. This picture strengthens the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will keep policy rates high for a long time.
While Donald Trump describes the increase in oil prices as “a very small price”, it is reported that the main impact on the markets is felt on liquidity.
The possibility of interest rates remaining high limits volatility and restricts upward movements. Additionally, it is stated that uncertainty continues to be priced in option markets.
Important Technical Levels
$72,600 stands out as the resistance point in Bitcoin. If the price can rise above this threshold and the 50-day moving average, the rise may regain strength. The fact that oil is at the level of 110 dollars continues to put pressure on risky assets.
While the main support zone is concentrated between $60,000 and $62,300, in a permanent decline below this level, $52,000 may come to the fore as the next demand zone.
