The crypto market started Monday on a positive note, with most top 10 coins trading in green. Now, investors are closely watching one key event this week, the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Last month’s CPI data pushed the crypto market up by nearly 4%.
This time, traders are watching how Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP will react to the new CPI data.
What to Expect from the February CPI Report
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February 2026 CPI and Core CPI data this week. Economists expect inflation to come in around 2.5%, slightly higher than January’s 2.4%. Core CPI is also expected to stay near 2.5%.
These numbers show that inflation is slowly cooling but is still above the Federal Reserve target of 2%. Because of this, the Fed may delay cutting interest rates. Some officials want rate cuts, while others prefer to keep rates unchanged.
Meanwhile, the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows about a 95% chance that rates will stay near 3.5% – 3.75%.
Higher interest rates usually reduce money flowing into markets, which can put pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies
How Could Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP React to the CPI Report?
Crypto markets have shown strong reactions to inflation data in recent months. On February 13, when January CPI came in at 2.4%, slightly below expectations, Bitcoin quickly rallied about 5%, jumping from a daily low of $65,889 to nearly $70,500.
At the same time, Ethereum and XRP also reacted strongly. Both coins gained around 5% to 8% in a single day, with Ethereum moving above $2,100 and XRP trading near $1.55.
Now, the February CPI data is expected to come in at 2.5%, slightly higher than January’s 2.4% reading. Because of this, traders are closely watching how the market will react this time.
However, there is also some caution in the ETF market. Over the last two days, Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $227.9 million and $348.9 million, which could affect short-term price momentum.
Possible Scenarios for Crypto After CPI
If inflation comes in lower than expected, analysts believe Bitcoin could attempt another move toward $70,000, with Ethereum and XRP likely following.
However, if CPI surprises to the upside, traders may fear that high interest rates will remain longer, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward a lower support level of $60K.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading near $67,179, while Ethereum sits around $1,980, and XRP is hovering close to $1.35.
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