A new report prepared by Fidelity Digital Assets argues that Bitcoin’s four-year volatile cycle in recent years has begun to change structurally. Crypto Tice, one of the well-known names in the field of crypto money, also supports the analysis of the report. Tice claimed that the MVRV data included in the study was the most optimistic institutional Bitcoin report to date.
Cycle Analysis with MVRV Ratio
In the research, the chart provided by Glassnode showing Bitcoin’s “Entity-Adjusted MVRV” (Market Value versus Realized Value) ratio offers the opportunity to compare the past four market cycles. The MVRV ratio measures how far Bitcoin’s current market price is from the average cost last transferred on-chain. A ratio of 1.0 indicates that the market price is equal to the cost base; An increase in the rate indicates an increase in the level of unrealized profit in the market.
While this ratio increased to approximately 6 in the 2013 cycle, it reached 4.7 at its peak in 2017 and briefly reached 6 again in 2021. In the current cycle, the MVRV ratio fluctuates between 2 and 2.8; The high values of previous cycles have not been reached this time.
This compression observed on the chart indicates a more moderate process compared to the previous rises and falls of the last cycle. While previous cycles ended with significant price increases and intense sales pressure, it seems that there has not been a profit taking on that scale yet in the current period.
The Increasing Role of Institutional Investors
The report shared by Crypto Tice draws attention to the rising influence of institutional investors behind the structural change. It is stated that currently public companies and ETFs hold 12 percent of the total Bitcoin supply in circulation. It is stated that 49 different companies each have more than 1,000 Bitcoins in their portfolio. Additionally, it is reported that the assets under management of the leading Bitcoin ETF reached $75 billion in a short period of two years. The report highlights that it took seven years for the gold ETF GLD to reach the same size.
At the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin’s volatility was at a record low, even though the asset’s total market value reached $2.5 trillion. It is stated that the weight of institutional investors in the market prevents sudden sales and can reduce the severity of the increases in the cycle. Unlike retail investors, institutional investors act more steadily and do not cause large fluctuations by rebalancing their portfolios.
The Fidelity report includes the assessment that “The presence of institutional investors in the market reduces the severity of sudden rises and major pullbacks observed in the past.”
Possible Scenarios in MVRV
According to the calculation made by Crypto Tice, if the MVRV rate reaches 4 levels again in this cycle, the Bitcoin price may reach approximately 225 thousand dollars and the total market value may reach 4.5 trillion dollars. He cites that the current MVRV is around 2 and past cycles have not ended at this level. At the peaks of previous cycles the ratio was generally between 4 and 6.
This difference reveals that the current period carries higher potential, but it is emphasized that this is a structural observation, not a price prediction.
Limitations of the Report and Alternative Views
The structural change view based on institutional investors stands out as a data-backed argument. However, although this approach highlights the upside potential, it does not show that the downside risks are completely eliminated. It is stated that the 30 percent withdrawal prediction expressed recently by CK Zheng is also a data-based assessment. From this perspective, the possibility that cycles may now last longer and there may be shallower price pullbacks than before remains on the table.
Current differences in MVRV rate indicate that this cycle is unlike previous periods. However, exactly where and how the cycle will end remains unclear.
