The latest report by Fidelity Digital Assets claims that there has been a structural break in Bitcoin’s boom and bust cycle that repeats every four years. Cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Tice stated that the MVRV data and the report are the most optimistic analysis prepared for Bitcoin at the institutional level to date.
Cyclical Differences According to MVRV Data
The MVRV chart from Fidelity Digital Assets Research, based on Glassnode data, compares four major cycles in the Bitcoin network. MVRV shows the ratio of the current market price to the average price at which all Bitcoin assets on-chain were last moved. If the ratio is 1, the market is trading at cost basis. Higher rates mean higher unsold profits across the network.
In the 2013 cycle, MVRV rose to around 6. In 2021, the peak approached 6 again and an additional secondary peak was formed at level 3. In the 2017 cycle, the peak was approximately 4.7. In the most recent 2025 cycle, the rate generally hovered between 2 and 2.8 and did not reach the extreme values in previous cycles. It is reported that this compression is the main difference of the current cycle. In previous cycles, MVRV reached between 4 and 6, at which point severe selling pressure occurred. However, this picture has not been seen yet in the recent period.
The Increasing Role of Corporate Capital
In the evaluation he shared on March 8, 2026, Crypto Tice highlighted some important data by highlighting the Fidelity analysis. Public companies and ETFs hold 12 percent of the total Bitcoin supply in circulation, according to current data. There are 49 different companies, each holding over 1,000 Bitcoins. While the largest Bitcoin ETF reached a volume of $75 billion with assets under management in less than two years, the GLD gold ETF was able to reach this level in seven years.
Bitcoin’s volatility hit an all-time low of 17 in January 2026. Although Bitcoin’s market value approached $2.5 trillion in October 2025, volatility was this low, a situation not observed in previous cycles. It is stated that the weight of institutional investors in the market has weakened the sudden rise-fall patterns of previous years by reducing short-term panic sales. Institutions generally do not suddenly unload their positions when rebalancing.
Possible Consequence of Potential MVRV Peak
According to analysts, if the MVRV ratio in the current cycle reaches 4 as in 2017 and previous peaks, Bitcoin’s price could rise to around $225,000 and its total market cap could rise to $4.5 trillion. Currently MVRV is hovering around 2. Historically, Bitcoin cycles have exceeded the 2 level and ended at values between 4 and 6. This difference stands out as one of the main arguments of the bullish expectation; However, this is not presented as a prediction, but as an observation based on comparing the current cycle with the past.
Limitations of the Report and Alternative Views
Although the corporate infrastructure argument put forward in the Fidelity report is supported by clear data, this structure does not completely eliminate risks in the market. As CK Zheng pointed out at the beginning of 2026, a possible 30 percent depreciation scenario is similarly justified by the data. It is considered that as the cycle gets longer, more limited withdrawals and different peaks may be seen compared to the past.
MVRV data reveals that the current cycle is clearly different from previous years. However, this chart cannot determine exactly at what level and how the cycle will end.
