On-chain data on the Bitcoin network revealed that the growth rate of market value is lagging behind the actual market value increase. This difference was observed in the past before periods when sales were stronger. These two indicators, which are closely followed in the crypto market, offer important signals to understand investor behavior and price dynamics.
Separation of Market Value and Realized Value
Market cap is calculated by multiplying Bitcoin’s total supply by the current price. The realized market value shows the total value of each Bitcoin according to the last on-chain price it moved and reflects the total cost of investors on the network. The difference contains important information about the dynamics of the market. When market value grows faster than realized value, demand remains strong; In the opposite case, it indicates that the pressure is increasing.
Latest Chart Analysis
In the growth rate difference chart covering the period from the beginning of 2020 to 2026, sales pressure remains low when the market value increase takes precedence, while sales gain momentum when the value increase accelerates. While a great acceleration was recorded in the chart during the 2021 rise period, this trend was reversed in 2022, resulting in a serious decrease in market value growth, and the Bitcoin price dropped to $ 15,000.
In the period from the end of 2023 to 2024, the selling pressure eased as the market value came to the fore again. However, the data show that as we enter 2026, there is a new change in the relationship, the realized value growth rate exceeds the market value and sales-oriented activity comes to the fore once again.
365 Day Moving Average and Signals
The second chart uses a 365-day simple moving average to reduce short-term fluctuations in the market. Here, the orange line represents the market value growth on an annual basis, and the blue line represents the actual value increase rate. While the market value was clearly ahead on an annual basis at the 2021 peak, it reversed and fell into negative territory in 2022.
While the two indicators approached each other in mid-2023, the market value quickly recovered in 2024. Towards 2026, the orange line fell below the blue line again and approached negative. However, the blue line continues its positive course. This transition reveals that capital inflows on the chain continue, but the price increase rate slows down.
The fact that the realized market value continues to rise steadily indicates that the mobility and cost base in the Bitcoin network is increasing. However, the fact that the price cannot keep up with this pace suggests that the need for extra demand in the market has come to the fore.
The observed divergence indicates that selling pressure is still high relative to market growth and the upward momentum may weaken unless the price movement is supported by extra buyers. The charts do not contain an exact prediction of what level the price will go to in the future, but they reflect the current trend.
