Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), which is closely followed in the Bitcoin market, rose above its 90-day moving average this week. This means that the upward signal for the indicator, which has not been seen for about a year, is repeated. This signal, put forward by the IFP in the past, has signaled the beginning of a permanent upward period every time since 2016.
How Does IFP Work and What Message Does It Send to the Market?
Inter-exchange Flow Pulse tracks the movement of Bitcoin transfers between spot and derivative exchanges. When Bitcoin moves to derivative platforms, investors often take positions in anticipation of a price increase. Conversely, when Bitcoin derivatives leave exchanges, it is interpreted as risk aversion or reduction of existing positions.
To understand the indicator, we look at the general trend of these flows, not just the daily change. The transition above the 90-day moving average symbolizes a sustainable change in investor behavior rather than a sudden change. In this way, the real structure and collective trends in buying and selling tendencies are distinguished.
The last transition occurred at the Bitcoin price level of $72,000. This level coincides with the indicator returning to a bull signal for the first time after remaining in the bear zone for the last year. The constant decline of IFP in the last year coincided with Bitcoin’s similar decline from $ 108,000 to $ 63,000.
Historical Trends and Uncertainties
The “golden cross” seen in the IFP has appeared before strong bullish periods every time since 2016. The fact that it shows the same trend in different market conditions for more than eight years causes this data to be watched carefully by market participants.
But historical examples also point to some warnings. After the bullish signal in June 2016, there was a temporary decline for 55 days. A similar short-term misleading movement was observed at the end of 2024. Therefore, while a crossover above the moving average is considered a signal, performance in the following weeks is critical for the actual market reversal.
The last one-year bear period was recorded as one of the longest decline periods in IFP history. Similarly, reversals that occur after long periods of negativity can pave the way for stronger price movements in the market because unbalanced positions require a greater reversal momentum.
From a technical perspective, the first significant resistance for Bitcoin lies at $79,000. This level stands out as the range that limited the rise in January, where the price climbed from 80,000 to 98,000 dollars and fell again. If the Bitcoin price approaches this region again, it will be clearer whether the current bullish signal indicates strong demand or is a short-term movement.
It is also noteworthy that long-term investors started saving again at these prices for the first time since July 2025. The fact that different on-chain indicators give similar results in the same price band is kept under close monitoring by market observers.
