After big bottoms are formed Bitcoin It moves away from this level, never to return for a long time. For example, in the crash at the end of 2022, each rise was viewed as a process of bears gaining strength for a new decline. Finally BTC While it exceeded 20 thousand dollars, those who looked at it with skepticism saw that it had exceeded 120 dollars. So, is it possible to understand that this bottom has come? Historical data may offer some indication.
8% to Cryptocurrency Bottom
The losses suffered by long-term investors show how resistant to pain patient investors are. According to historical data, when 40-50% of long-term investors lose money, big bottoms usually occur. The On-Chain Mind account confirmed this by sharing the chart below, pointing to the signal at the 2015, 2019 and 2020 bottoms.
Each cycle, the rate of losses decreases by 5% compared to the previous one. The bottom came in 2015, when half of the investors were at a loss. 45% in 2019 and 40% in 2022. The relativity of price causes this ratio to naturally decrease from cycle to cycle, as higher lows may be “deeper” enough to cause pain for fewer long-term investors.
So our target this cycle should be 35%. Since the rate of investors currently in loss is 27%, this bottom signal will work when 8% of long-term investors write losses. The interesting detail is that even if the price remains constant, this metric can rise because investors switch to long-term status over time.
Trump, Iran and Crypto
Trump was critical at the time of writing Iranian He started to make another of his statements. These statements are at least as important as on-chain data because the course of the war will determine the direction of the graphics. Trump again mentions that Iran is willing for the deal.
“The USA continues to strike Iran ahead of schedule. Iran’s navy has been destroyed. Iran’s anti-aircraft weapons have been destroyed. Iran’s communication means and planes have been destroyed.
Iran calls and asks how to make a deal. Iran is a little late.
Oil prices appear to have largely stabilized. It is only a matter of time before new measures are taken to reduce the pressure on oil. I call on the Iranian army to lay down their weapons. “We call on Iranian diplomats around the world to seek asylum.”
The US House of Representatives rejected the resolution to halt attacks on Iran by a vote of 219 to 212.
