The recent military tensions that Iran has experienced and the resulting international sanctions have given remarkable signals about the durability of the cryptocurrency infrastructure in the country. In the process that started with the air strikes of the USA and Israel on February 28, how the crypto markets were affected in Iran and the role played by stablecoins were revealed with new analysis.
Shadow Economy of Cryptocurrencies in Iran
According to data from analysis companies such as TRM Labs and Chainalysis, Iran’s total crypto transaction volume in 2025 reached 8 to 10 billion dollars. It was reported that Nobitex, the largest crypto exchange in the country, serves approximately 15 million users. Again, according to Elliptic’s analysis, the Central Bank purchased at least $507 million worth of USDT last year. This step is considered as the new methods adopted by Iran to bypass the global banking system.
Chainalysis estimated that about half of this transaction volume was transferred to wallets linked to the Revolutionary Guard. TRM Labs stated that this rate is approximately five percent; however, it found that since 2023, more than 5,000 IRGC-linked wallets had moved more than $3 billion in cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, according to the report published by London-based TRM Labs in January, two companies registered in the United Kingdom, Zedcex and Zedxion, transferred $619 million worth of stablecoins to wallets associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in 2024 alone.
“This is not a one-off crypto exploit; it is a systematic act of a sanctioned military organization operating through an offshore crypto exchange infrastructure,” said Ari Redbord, director of policy at TRM Labs.
Market Behavior During Wartime
According to TRM Labs analysis, internet connectivity in Iran dropped by 99 percent during the attacks on February 28, and crypto transaction volumes dropped by 80 percent in a few days. Many exchanges have completely or partially suspended withdrawals; Others have turned to a twice-daily mass shooting format.
The most striking step was the Central Bank’s instruction to temporarily suspend the USDT-toman transaction pair. Toman serves as the main bridge between crypto and fiat money in the country. According to the information provided, panicked users tended to replace their rials with USDT, which is indexed to the US dollar, and this parity became an instant indicator of the depreciation of the local currency. The Central Bank’s move thus caused a temporary brake on the crypto side against the rapid change in the exchange rate.
When transactions were reopened, low volume and extreme price volatility in the order books attracted attention. These developments revealed USDT’s deep embeddedness in Iran’s financial infrastructure. TRM Labs stated that this period was evaluated as “showing tension, but the system was not resolved.”
International Regulatory Observations and Risk Emphasis
Following the crisis, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) published a new report on stablecoins and anonymous wallets at the beginning of March. According to findings based on Chainalysis data, 84 percent of illegal crypto transactions in 2025 took place through stablecoins. FATF clearly stated in its report that Iranian actors use stablecoins for financial expansion.
FATF pointed out that more than 250 stablecoins are currently in circulation in the market and the total market value is over 300 billion dollars. FATF also called on countries to establish effective regulatory frameworks, especially against risks arising from stablecoins, and emphasized that most countries are inadequate in this area under current conditions.
USDT’s dollar-indexed structure not only offers a practical solution for legal transitions in countries such as Iran, but also plays a facilitating role in overcoming sanctions. Although Tether management emphasizes that it implements a zero-tolerance policy against illegal use, increasing financial pressures continue to increase interest in crypto. One of the points that experts draw attention to is that war and crisis environments make this addiction unignorable.
