While Bitcoin continues to trade at around $66,000, on-chain indicators reveal a renewed increase in activity by large investors, aka whales, on spot exchanges. With the price movements in recent weeks, the significant increase in transactions of addresses of this size is noteworthy.
Price Under Pressure as Whale Rate Rises
The 30-day moving average of the Exchange Whale Ratio, which measures the ratio of large volume transactions to total inflows, has started to rise again. On-chain data showed that this rate was on the rise during previous major correction periods. At that time, while there was a decline of approximately 40 percent in Bitcoin, the activity of whales also increased. A similar picture is seen in today’s scenario and the price remains under pressure while the Whale Ratio increases.
This development indicates that large investors have started to take positions in parallel with the price movement instead of remaining passive. On the other hand, increasing whale transactions do not directly mean hard selling; However, as the price relaxes, the mobility of these actors plays a significant role in swap and spot transactions.
Coinbase Premium Low: Weak Demand from the US
It seems that the demand from US-based investors in the spot market, which is followed through Coinbase Premium Index, is low. The fact that the index has remained in the negative zone for a long time shows that US buyers are not buying aggressively despite the decline in prices. On the other hand, while the mobility of whales is increasing, broad-based spot demand still appears fragile and this divergence in the market structure is noteworthy.
While there is no sign of strong demand in the US in the current market environment, it is reported that the possibility of the price encountering resistance in its upward movements is increasing.
Liquidity Flows Are in a Defensive Position
USDC (ERC-20) net flows have become positive in recent days and these funds are entering the stock exchanges again. However, this liquidity increase has not translated into a significant spot Bitcoin purchase. It is observed that the funds are not actively used while they are waiting in the stock exchanges.
In addition, the negative trend in USDT (ERC-20) net flows continues. This reveals that capital continues to leave Ethereum-based networks and participants are turning to alternative networks, especially platforms such as Tron.
All these liquidity movements indicate that investors continue to take a defensive and cautious position, rather than an increase in risk.
Volatility May Continue Unless Spot Demand Recovers
As a result, it is observed that market movements are more position-based and flow-oriented in periods when large investors come to the fore and spot demand remains low. Under this type of structure, price volatility may increase, but as long as demand is not sustainable, the permanence of upward moves remains a question mark.
According to the current outlook, a market structure has emerged where whales are active and US-based current spot buyers remain cautious. It is stated that as liquidity movements continue, upward attacks are not supported by a solid demand basis.
