For the first time in the current market cycle, Bitcoin has been below the realized price level of approximately $72,700 for almost a month, excluding supply that has not moved in more than seven years. This level was seen before bear markets lasting six to twelve months in previous cycles.
Adjusted Realized Price Calculation
Realized price generally calculates the average cost basis by looking at what price all Bitcoins in circulation in the market were moved in the last blockchain movements. However, in the adjusted version used in the analysis, coins that have not moved for seven years and are considered lost or unavailable are removed from this calculation. This approach aims to reflect the cost of supply, which only affects current market behavior.
After applying the seven-year inactivity criterion, the average cost basis for active investors appears to be approximately $72,700. Currently, Bitcoin price is trading between $63,000 and $65,000, which is 10-13 percent below the adjusted realized price level.
Noteworthy Points in the Graph
In the analysis, the period from January 2023 to the beginning of 2026 was examined. During this time period, Bitcoin’s price was mostly above the realized price and the average investor was making a profit, not a loss. The chart was clearly upward, especially during the recovery in 2023 and the rise approaching $100,000 in 2024.
However, looking at the current situation, the rapid decline on the right side of the chart has pulled Bitcoin below the realized price line. Although there have been short-term touches to this level before, it is stated that this is the first time it has remained below this level for almost a month. Moreover, although the realized price line continues to show a slight upward trend, this gap does not close on its own over time; A serious price increase is required for recovery.
Historical Importance
Analyzes state that this metric is of historical importance. Previously, when the Bitcoin price remained below the realized price for a long time, this was followed by strong bear markets lasting between six and twelve months. While the short-term breaks seen on the chart in 2023 and 2024 are rapidly recovering, the current break lasting about a month differs from previous temporary attacks.
Based on current price action, if historical trends are repeated, a potential recovery could occur sometime between August 2026 and early 2027. The timing here varies depending on when the breakout started and how historical data is applied.
Necessary Conditions for Structural Recovery
According to the analysis, it is a critical threshold for Bitcoin price to exceed the adjusted realized price level again in terms of market dynamics. When the price rises above the cost basis, a larger portion of investors are in profit and selling pressure decreases. This paves the way for more stable and permanent price movements.
However, as the price remained below the cost basis, many investors were trading at a loss, increasing the tendency to exit positions, making the recovery even more difficult. An increase of 10-15 percent is required to reach the $72,700 threshold again from the current price range.
