Cryptocurrency analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has resurrected an important technical structure observed in Bitcoin’s four major market cycles. According to this approach, which is based on long-term market movements, Bitcoin’s relationship with the 33-week exponential moving average (EMA) plays a decisive role in pricing.
33-Week EMA and Multi-Year Cycles
According to EGRAG CRYPTO’s analysis, Bitcoin’s relationship with the 33-week EMA is considered an important sign. With each cycle, Bitcoin declines below this average, consolidates below this level for a period of time, and then forms a bottom and regains the EMA. This process of establishing a base and rising again has been repeated in all four major market cycles.
Looking at historical data, the time Bitcoin spent below the 33-week EMA has ranged from 120 to 180 days. On average, there is a base-building period of about five months. Exceeding the level again at the end of this period has heralded periods of major price increases in the past.
Which Phase in the Current Cycle?
According to the analyst, Bitcoin has re-entered below the 33-week EMA in the current market cycle. But so far only this first step has been realized. EGRAG CRYPTO indicates that the historically tracked base building and time component is not currently complete. In other words, the time Bitcoin spent below this average on an average basis has not yet expired.
Therefore, the current expectation in the cryptocurrency market indicates that the base process continues. If the temporal component is completed as in past cycles, sharp upward movements are likely to occur.
Two Possible Scenarios
EGRAG CRYPTO states that the current chart has two main possibilities. The first one; The historical process works exactly as it is, that is, a strong rise begins after waiting long enough under the 33-week EMA and establishing a solid base. In this scenario, it is possible for the price to reach a target between $200,000 and $250,000, as in the past.
The second possibility is that the EMA level is taken back with a sudden and sharp rise without experiencing the typical bottom process. In this case, the pattern observed in the previous four cycles will be broken. However, it is predicted that the general upward trend may continue even in such a “V” formation. However, skipping the base creation process also increases the risk of uncertainty in the future.
Latest Status and Outlook in Bitcoin
Looking at the current chart, the fact that Bitcoin is currently below the EMA indicates that it is in the early and uncertain stage of the process. Therefore, both patient base formation and short-term rise possibilities are on the table.
