A group of crypto wallets profited over $1.2 million from a Polymarket contract linked to an on-chain investigation involving decentralized finance platform Axiom, reigniting concerns about insider use in prediction markets.
Insider Information Suspicion in Onchain Analysis
Researcher Defioasis, who monitors movements on the blockchain, pointed out that eight of the top 10 wallets with the highest profits in Polymarket may have inside information. The research revealed that three wallets in particular traded only in this market and each of them earned over 100 thousand dollars. The fact that these addresses have almost never traded in any other market before is cited as one of the factors that strengthen the possibility of insider access.
Investigations and Allegations on the Axiom Platform
The Polymarket contract in question was the focus of an extensive investigation announced by blockchain detective ZachXBT. Within the scope of the investigation, it was alleged that Broox Bauer, one of the employees of the Axiom platform, and some others made transactions with inside information dating back to the beginning of 2025. After the findings were made public, Axiom management stated that there was surprise and sadness regarding the developments; announced that access to internal tools that allegedly used inside information was removed.
Defioasis, in his assessment of onchain movements, said: “There are strong signs that three addresses, each of which has only traded in this market and earned over 100 thousand dollars in total, have insider information.”
According to on-chain financial activity, the eight addresses that made the most profit generated $1.2 million in revenue. However, more than fifty different wallets recorded a total loss of $ 1.23 million, among which two addresses alone lost nearly $ 366 thousand.
Prediction Markets and Regulatory Debates
What happened with the Axiom investigation brought the risks of insider transactions in prediction markets back to the agenda. In recent months, it was also reported that a user on the Polymarket platform made a significant profit shortly before the dismissal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Tarek Mansour, CEO of the American centralized prediction market Kalshi, announced that he supports a new legal regulation proposal that would ban government officials from trading in prediction markets.
In the regulatory field, Polymarket is under pressure in many countries where it operates. Hungary, Portugal and Ukraine have suspended access to the platform over concerns of unlicensed activity. Previously, France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore and Switzerland had similarly restricted Polymarket’s operations.
