Recent Bitcoin price declines in the cryptocurrency markets have led to allegations of manipulation and various conspiracy theories on social media. However, Matt Hougan, investment director of Bitwise, one of the important portfolio managers in the sector, pointed out that the main reasons for the price decline are simpler and more direct.
Factors Causing the Decline in Bitcoin
Allegations have been made in cryptocurrency circles that major players such as Binance and Jane Street are making mass sales in the market and consciously lowering the price at certain hours. Matt Hougan emphasized that, contrary to these theories that come to the fore in market discourse, the real reason is that long-term investors reduce their positions.
Hougan stated that investors are withdrawing from the market by selling spot Bitcoin and closing leveraged transactions. It was also reported that sales on covered options also increased the sales pressure. According to the Bitwise executive, three key factors play a role in this picture: the four-year market cycle theory, concerns about quantum computing, and the shift of capital movements from crypto to artificial intelligence initiatives.
“First Binance, then Wintermute, then an unknown offshore macro fund were on the agenda. Now all eyes are on Jane Street, and next week someone else will be talked about.”
Quantum Computing Concerns and Institutional Approaches
Quantum computing concerns have become a more strongly discussed topic in the cryptocurrency community recently. Although MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor argues that such concerns are exaggerated, some institutional investors remain cautious.
Canadian entrepreneur and investor Kevin O’Leary stated that especially large corporate actors have set a limit of up to 3 percent on Bitcoin investment and that he expects the industry to bring a permanent solution to quantum risks. Additionally, Christopher Wood, head of global equity strategy at financial services company Jefferies, reduced the weight of Bitcoin in the portfolio due to similar concerns.
Market Cycle, Sell-Off and Future Scenarios
Matt Hougan suggested that most of the recent sales have been completed and the market has entered the process of forming a bottom. According to him, the upward potential may come to the fore again at the end of the periodic “crypto winter” period.
“This period is a classic crypto winter, and it will be followed by a classic crypto spring.”
Bitwise investment director stated that the current decline started in January 2025 and that historically such decline processes lasted an average of 13 months, pointing out that a new phase may enter towards the end of the year.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo said that the severity of the recent sales has decreased, but low liquidity in the spot and futures markets may limit the rise in the coming period. Woo predicted that the sales pressure could continue until the last quarter of 2026, and the positive atmosphere could start to emerge from the beginning of 2027.
“A typical bear market bottom for Bitcoin would be at $45,000. If the global macro remains balanced, the support point is $30,000, and $16,000 is critical for maintaining the trend.”
Although there were timing differences in analysts’ predictions, it was stated that the main reason for the current market weakness was due to structural and psychological forces and that allegations of manipulation did not find support.
