Following Trump’s statements in the morning, Bitcoin returned to 65 thousand dollars, but the risk has not disappeared yet. Thursday’s negotiations and Friday’s figures are important. The analyst with the pseudonym Evanss6 says that the situation of crypto is not as simple as it seems and that permanent portfolio adjustments change the rules of the game.
The Future of Cryptocurrencies
The analyst says that people who have kept 80% of their net assets in crypto for many years are permanently switching portfolios. We explained this at length last year when talking about South Korean investors. We even mentioned that this could spread to other investors as AI hype remains strong. As a matter of fact, despite the falling prices, our Asian friends have not returned to the markets and US investors have been sellers for a long time. When there are no buyers left BTC creates such graphs.
There are many reasons for this and it doesn’t really matter;
- Four-year cycle.
- Quantum concerns.
- Trump’s madness.
- Manipulations on MSTR, mNAV controversies, MSCI and many more.
- AI is the enthusiasm in robotics.
- Delayed QE.
The list goes on and on and there is no shortage of reasons. The real problem is that the portfolio adjustment we see among South Korean investors is spreading among global crypto investors. This is one of the reasons why cryptocurrency exchanges have activated their stock trading capabilities. Ingenious (!) steps to further withdraw from crypto as liquidity dries up.
“It took a unique set of circumstances to come together for BTC to experience a 50% decline on 5-month candlesticks.
Basically, DAT, which is not price sensitive, is declining in the final phase, entering the 4th quarter when OGs/cycle sellers realize their gross sales…
A large number of sales occurred due to lack of buyers.
Things that can turn the ship around are:
-more time/lower prices (revisit Q4 when 4-year cycle buyers attracted interest)
-deflation -> money printing -> UBI
-High taxes on AI/excessive wealth, confiscation plans
-quantum resistance?
These narratives allow people to of BTC It will help them understand why.
Unfortunately the crypto market is still focused around BTC. Maybe this will change eventually, but if you’re optimistic about other coins, BTC shouldn’t be drilling into the earth’s core every week. However, it may not be my main investment in the “next cycle.” It is also worth noting that the dominant themes of this cycle were ETFs, DATs and memes, disappointing many OGs.
“Something much more convincing is needed to recover this capital.”
Will History Repeat?
Bitcoin The chart filled with large red candles at agonizing speed. However, if we are talking about historical data, Bitcoin’s current chart may be promising. Bitcoin is about 3 days away from closing below the previous cycle’s all-time high. The last time this happened was in 2022, Bitcoin experienced a historic rise and began its 23-month green candle bull run, climbing from $15.6K to $126K.
