Bitcoin It’s at $63,000 and the fear index is still at extreme levels. So is this decline permanent? The news flow is not in the bulls’ favor as cryptocurrencies continually race to deeper bottoms. Today we will discuss the evaluations of different analysts about the current situation.
Is Cryptocurrency Decline Permanent?
The four-year cycle structure motivated cryptocurrency investors to sell in the last quarter of 2025, but most of the major declines in the last 2 years with cryptocurrencies It was triggered by unrelated factors. Tariffs, wars, banking crisis, Trump’s threats and many other developments. Bitcoin It is at $63 thousand and the Fear and Greed index is at 11.
Nic thinks this might not be the end.
“This looks like surrender. But it is not. Not yet. Yes, we reduced leverage. We liquidated long positions. Funding is negative. Open positions have decreased.
ETFs bleed for five weeks. All of this happened. However, LTHs do not sell. In fact, on-chain data shows steady accumulation, not widespread surrender. To me, this looks more like a positioning reset than an eventual bottom.
Crypto is not currently traded like crypto, it is more like a high beta technology. AI is squeezing growth coefficients, tariffs remain steady, and the Fed can’t seem to bail out risky assets.
The $60,000 level is important because a real capitulation is likely below this level. Above this level, you could cause a squeeze if flows stabilize.
“The real question is not whether we will recover, but whether this macro regime change will be temporary… Or whether cryptocurrencies will go through a longer rotation period without growth.”
In any case, it looks like life will be even more challenging, especially for battered altcoins. The negative atmosphere in cryptocurrencies may continue at least until the middle of this year.
Will Bitcoin Reach $38,000?
It would be quite painful for BTC to fall below $40,000 after hitting $120,000. Darkfost, who examined investor cost bases, recalled previous bear markets and wrote that we may see deeper bottoms in the environment where this process matures.
“in BTC Since the situation is not improving, it remains important to continue analyzing the behavior of different investor groups in the market. One of the key groups in this context is the Long Term Holders (LTH) group, which is known to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations. Currently, LTHs earn approximately 74% profit on average.
This profit margin continues to decrease as the price approaches the LTH cost base. The LTH cost base is currently estimated at approximately $38,900.
This cost base is not fixed and continues to rise over time as STHs who purchase BTC at higher prices move into the LTH category. Looking at historical precedents, every bear market has been characterized by the price falling below this cost floor, triggering the final capitulation phase marked by realized losses of ~20%.”
The price may need to lose this threshold before we can talk about overselling, and then the process of rebuilding the foundations for the reversal of the trend will begin.
