XRP price is sliding hard as regulatory optimism takes a sudden hit. A sharp drop in Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act has rattled sentiment, and traders are responding quickly. Beneath the surface, exchange data shows consistent sell-side pressure building while leverage unwinds across futures markets. Is this simply a temporary reaction to shifting expectations, or the start of a deeper XRP price reset?
Clarity Act Odds Drop, Sentiment Reverses
The first negative trigger came from Polymarket data. Odds for the U.S. Clarity Act passing this year fell sharply from 72% to 42%. That is a major shift in expectations in a short time. For many investors, the Clarity Act represents potential regulatory clarity for digital assets in the United States. Clear guidelines around token classification and oversight could remove uncertainty and attract institutional capital.
When the probability of that clarity weakens, assets closely tied to regulatory narratives feel the impact immediately. XRP has long traded in sync with regulatory headlines. The sudden drop in approval odds forced traders to reassess bullish positioning. Sentiment turned cautious, and early sellers began to take control. However, sentiment alone does not sustain downside moves. Exchange data confirms real selling pressure.
Exchange Data Signals Active Distribution
On Binance, XRP price is trading near $1.34 while the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) sits around -728,000 XRP. CVD measures aggressive buying versus aggressive selling. A negative reading of this magnitude shows sellers are dominating. Traders are not simply waiting, they are actively executing market sell orders. The 30-day CVD correlation remains high at 0.68, meaning price is closely following order flow.
As long as CVD remains negative, rallies are likely to face supply. At the same time, the Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has fallen to approximately 0.16, with both short-term and mid-term leverage trends declining. This indicates speculative positioning has cooled significantly. The decline is not being driven by forced liquidations. Instead, leverage has already been reduced, suggesting controlled distribution rather than a cascade event. This combination, falling regulatory odds, negative order flow, and lower leverage points toward measured repositioning rather than market panic.
XRP Price Action Weakens Below Key EMAs: Is $1.00 Retest Possible?
XRP’s chart structure is showing visible signs of weakness after breaking below key moving averages on the daily chart. XRP price is now trading under the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, both of which have started sloping downward, a classic short-term bearish signal.
Adding to the concern, price is struggling to reclaim the mid-channel region, and every minor bounce is facing supply near the declining EMA cluster. This indicates that short-term traders are using rallies as exit opportunities rather than accumulation zones.
The immediate support sits around the $1.28–$1.30 area, where prior consolidation occurred. However, if that zone fails to attract strong demand, the broader chart opens up toward the psychological $1.00 level.
The $1.00 mark is significant for two reasons. First, it aligns with a major horizontal demand area from previous accumulation phases. Second, it represents a psychological support that often attracts liquidity and long-term positioning. The RSI remains in the lower half of the range, showing no clear bullish divergence yet. This suggests downside pressure may persist unless buyers step in decisively.
For XRP to invalidate the immediate bearish structure, price would need to reclaim the $1.45–$1.50 region and close back above the key EMAs. Until that happens, the path of least resistance appears tilted downward. A controlled drift toward deeper support remains possible if selling pressure continues, and that keeps the $1.00 retest firmly on the table.
Final Words
XRP’s weakness appears rooted in regulatory repricing and confirmed by exchange data. The drop in Clarity Act odds triggered the move, while Binance CVD confirms sustained selling pressure. With leverage already reduced, the risk of a violent liquidation event remains low. Recovery now depends on improved regulatory sentiment and a visible shift in order flow. Until buyers absorb supply decisively, XRP may remain under pressure as traders adjust to a more cautious regulatory outlook.
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