Cardano (ADA) futures began trading on the Chicago-based CME exchange on February 9. This development, which symbolizes an important turning point in the cryptocurrency market, has brought to the agenda the question of whether the spot ADA ETF (exchange traded fund) will be opened in the USA. Recent regulations, especially the new standards of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), have made the process faster.
The Process Has Been Accelerated with New Standards
General listing standards that the SEC will implement in 2025; It allowed major exchanges such as Nasdaq, NYSE Arca and Cboe to list commodity-based investment funds that meet certain conditions without the need for an additional application. According to this new framework, the crypto asset underlying the ETF must be actively traded on a regulated futures exchange for at least six months.
The six-month expiration of ADA futures traded on CME is expected to expire on August 9. While it was stated that the process could take up to 240 days in the old application system, with the new rules, a calendar has emerged in which exchanges can list spot ETFs in only 75 days.
Pay Attention to Three Phases in the Process
According to experts, the process is divided into three basic phases: In the first period, from February to May, volume and open positions in CME are closely monitored. Activity here will indicate the liquidity of the product and whether sufficient infrastructure for regulatory oversight has been established.
S-1 applications from ETF issuers are expected to be seen in the May–August period. If applications start during this period, a message will be given that the market is preparing for the ETF launch immediately after the six-month period expires. In the final stage, it will be critical to observe whether the SEC considers the ADA to be a commodity if it filed after August 9th.
Classification and Liquidity Risk Continues
However, it is still unclear whether Cardano is a security or a commodity. The SEC had made ADA’s security status controversial in some of the lawsuits it had previously filed, but later withdrew the lawsuits it had filed against Coinbase and Binance. Even so, spot ADA ETF applications include a stark warning: If the court rules that ADA is a security, the fund may have to be liquidated.
The depth of Cardano futures has not yet reached the regular volume that CME previously achieved in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. The fact that ADA still has a lower market base and institutional participation remains limited makes it important to monitor transaction volumes and open position in the next six months.
The Importance of Timing and the First Move in Racing
August 9 merely marks a threshold at which SEC requirements could theoretically be completed. This date does not directly mean automatic approval. ETF issuers must both complete their application documents and be subject to SEC approval in areas such as custody, market making and fee structure.
In the crypto ETF space, the first approved funds are known to quickly attract investor interest. Therefore, issuers that complete the application process quickly can gain advantages in terms of liquidity and fund size.
Similar ADA ETPs already exist in Europe; However, both oversight and regulatory processes in the US work differently than in Europe. The SEC’s course requires proving that markets are interconnected, liquid and under surveillance.
As a result, the spot ETF path appears to be technically open for Cardano. However, developments in liquidity, volume and legal definition will determine whether the spot ADA ETF will be implemented in the USA.
