Bitcoin is trading near $68,240, down 45% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 14. Five consecutive negative monthly closes are about to print, a streak that has only occurred three times in Bitcoin’s entire history.
The question everyone is asking: is this a bear market bottom or just a pause before another leg down? Five signals are converging right now that could decide the answer.
1. Five Negative Months Have Always Preceded a 100% Rebound
Crypto analyst Lark Davis flagged that the only three times Bitcoin posted five straight negative monthly closes were in 2011 and twice during the 2018 bear market. In each instance, Bitcoin rebounded 100% over the following five months.
2. The Nasdaq 200-Day MA Is the Real Tripwire
Institutional research firm Ecoinometrics warned that Bitcoin is already below its 200-day moving average, but the Nasdaq 100’s 200-day MA is still rising. If equities break down, Bitcoin follows.
“There is no historical example of tech entering a real bear phase while Bitcoin quietly stabilizes,” the firm stated.
The setup is unstable. Bitcoin is weak while equities are still holding. A Nasdaq rollover would turn a grind into a drop.
3. Bitcoin’s Volatility Has Fallen Below Nvidia’s
Ecoinometrics data shows Bitcoin’s 12-month realized volatility has stayed below Nvidia’s since late 2022. ETF flows now dominate trend formation, replacing retail-driven spikes. That makes Bitcoin more durable structurally but more sensitive to equity drawdowns than in prior cycles.
4. The Altcoin MACD Crossover Not Seen Since May 2020
Davis highlighted that the Others/BTC chart has printed its first sustained bullish MACD crossover since the altcoin bleed began in April 2022. A brief crossover in March 2024 failed. This one has now held for two months.
The last time a crossover like this sustained was May 2020, right before the massive altcoin rally into 2021.
5. CLARITY Act Approaching March 1 Deadline
The Crypto CLARITY Act holds roughly 85-90% odds of passing on prediction markets. The White House has set a March 1 deadline for resolving the stablecoin yield dispute between banks and crypto firms.
Davis called it the potential “spark” for the market.
The Fed isn’t pivoting. Equities haven’t broken. The altcoin signal is flashing. And a regulatory catalyst sits weeks away. Five signals, one decision point. The next few weeks will settle which way this resolves.
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FAQs
Bitcoin is down 45% from its peak, and fear is extreme. Past cycles show rebounds after similar setups, but confirmation needs trend reversal.
Bitcoin price prediction 2026 ranges from $40K in a deeper correction to $100K–$150K if post-halving demand drives a new bull run.
Clear crypto rules can boost institutional inflows. A positive regulatory outcome may support a recovery rally toward six figures.
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