Bitcoin has fallen below a key on-chain support level that separates bull and bear periods in past market cycles, according to a report shared by crypto data analytics company CryptoQuant. This level corresponds to the realized cost average of a select group of investors who hold balances between 10 and 10,000 BTC and have moved their assets within the last one to three months.
The Role of Mid-Scale Investors
This user base stands out with both their influence on the market and their ability to reflect current trends. According to the latest data, the realized price of this group is approximately $89,800. Bitcoin has not exceeded this level since January 2026.
Structural Importance in Past Cycles
In Bitcoin’s past market cycles, the average cost level of these users has played a critical role in structural breaks and reversals in the market. In the 2021 cycle, the average purchase price for this group was around $33,700, with the price rising to a record high in November 2021. During the correction period of the period, the price never fell below this cost and investors maintained their faith in the market. However, in mid-2022, Bitcoin fell below this cost with a loss of approximately 30 percent, falling to $ 18,945, and the bear market was clearly confirmed.
CryptoQuant said, “In the past, this realized price level has served as a structural boundary between bull and bear markets. The transition of mid-sized and active investors into the loss zone is often a sign of structural weakness in the market.” he said.
During the interim correction in 2021, the price never fell below this base. This enabled the collective expectation to be sustained.
Differentiating Table in the Current Cycle
A different scenario is happening now. The average purchase price of the relevant investor base rose to $94,000 by the end of 2025. However, starting from December 2025, Bitcoin fell below this level and there is still no significant recovery. As of February 2026, the price is hovering around $66,424. This table represents a loss of 26 percent compared to the average cost of the mentioned group.
The fact that this group of prices remains below its costs for a long time indicates a different picture from the temporary corrections seen in previous cycles. According to analysis, a strong recovery in the market may be delayed under these conditions.
In the correction in 2021, the group in question did not move into the loss zone at all. Currently, the current loss is remarkable and provides important data that the cyclical structure has been broken.
According to CryptoQuant’s assessment, the market cannot be said to be structurally strengthened unless the Bitcoin price rises above this level again. The company believes staying below this cost level more accurately reflects the overall strength of the market, rather than short-term fluctuations.
