Trump continues his statements on Iran as the article is being prepared. Even though he spoke relatively moderately, he sent huge troops and equipment to the region. If we do not hear clear things about an agreement within 1 week and 10 days, crypto will have different reasons for the decline. So what does the data tell us?
Extreme Fear Phase
Crypto Fear and Greed Index It is at level 9, which is in the extreme fear zone. Combined with deep unrealized losses and capital outflows, the market is experiencing a broad psychological contraction. The bottom occurs not when everyone suddenly becomes brave again, but when the fear wears off, and for now there is nothing to indicate that we have reached the end of fear.
If we list the factors that feed fear, we need to mention dozens of reasons. However, we can divide them into 2. Crypto internal and external risks. The main factors fueling fear these days are macro and geopolitical threats outside of crypto. Risks inside from quantum computing meme coins We can extend it to the damage it does to the image of cryptocurrencies.
The fear index for cryptocurrencies may have just reached new lows, but the ITC Risk Liquidity Metric has been around for a long time. That is why the recent rise of cryptocurrencies is felt limited in altcoins. Benjamin Cowen said:
“You can see that liquidity conditions have been tight for years, so the crypto bull market in the past was characterized by narrow leadership. Historically, crises lead to loosening of monetary policy.”
Bitcoin in Bear Markets
Unfortunately, those who stuck to the four-year cycle story were right and BTC It entered bear markets as of the last quarter of 2025. Although investors thought this was temporary because it fluctuated constantly throughout the year, we experienced a similar process in 2021. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who examines investor psychology and profitability in the Bitcoin market through the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric, says that the earnings are rapidly melting away.
The NUPL rate has now fallen to 0.18. This shows that the average profit in the market has fallen to 18% and is rapidly approaching zero. Considering that the six-month average is 0.42, it becomes clear how sharp and rapid the decline is. NUPL deteriorating so quickly, of Bitcoin It indicates that he is still in a bear phase.
In summary, the conditions are not suitable to write a story of coming back from the bottom.
“NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is a particularly effective metric for measuring the weight of profits and losses in the market. This chart provides a clear view, especially when NUPL reaches bear market levels.
A decline into negative territory indicates that hidden losses are dominating the market and usually marks the final stage of capitulation. “Under these circumstances, it seems difficult to hope for a reversal of the trend and it will probably take some time for this to happen.” – Darkfost
