A Harvard-trained astrophysicist, Stephen, believes the next major Bitcoin price rally may not happen immediately, but when it does, it could follow a clear mathematical pattern.
In a recent discussion, Stephen explained that he spent much of 2025 studying whether Bitcoin would form another large bubble. “Are we going to have a bubble? How big’s it going to be?” he asked himself during the first half of 2025. But by November, after Bitcoin peaked, he realized something important: the market was not behaving like previous cycles.
According to Stephen, Bitcoin follows what’s known as a power law trend, meaning its long-term growth happens in a predictable logarithmic pattern. When price temporarily moves far above that trend, that’s when true “bubble” conditions appear. However, he says 2025 did not qualify as a real bubble year.
Why 2025 Was Not a True Bitcoin Bubble
Although Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in October 2025, Stephen argues it never stretched far enough above its long-term trend to count as a classic bubble.
“The trend price in October was around 110,000,” he explained. “We only exceeded that by 13 or 14,000. To even be one sigma, you would have to be 160,000 and above to really be in a true bubble.”
In other words, while Bitcoin made headlines by pushing above $120,000, it did not move far enough beyond its statistical range to resemble the explosive bubbles of 2013, 2017, or 2021.
Stephen compared two major forecasting approaches:
- The traditional four-year cycle model
- His preferred log-periodic power law model
He says the four-year model “was right three times, wrong twice,” failing to predict 2025 accurately. Meanwhile, the log-periodic model was “right five, wrong zero times,” with an average timing error of only half a year.
When Could the Next Bitcoin Rally Start?
Based on his analysis, the next major Bitcoin bubble peak is more likely in 2027, possibly extending into 2028.
“With that parameter… you would expect the next fundamental to be out in 2027,” he said. He added that the move could begin building momentum earlier, stating it “should be rising very nicely by 2027.”
This means Bitcoin may continue consolidating in the near term before entering a stronger, more sustained upward phase.
Bitcoin vs Gold: Is BTC Undervalued?
Stephen also compared Bitcoin’s performance to gold.
Since 2011:
- Bitcoin has risen by a factor of over 100,000
- Gold has increased by roughly three times
“Don’t let the gold bugs give you too much grief,” he joked, pointing to the massive difference in long-term returns.
However, he said that in 2025 Bitcoin fell significantly relative to gold. Based on his regression model, Bitcoin’s “fair value” relative to gold would be about 48 ounces of gold per BTC. Currently, he says it sits around 16 ounces, meaning it is roughly one standard deviation below trend.
Long-Term Growth Still Strong
Stephen said that Bitcoin’s long-term compound growth remains powerful. While gold has grown around 7 to 8 percent annually in recent years, Bitcoin’s parallel trajectory is closer to 40 percent.
He also noted that Bitcoin and gold are not consistently correlated. Sometimes they move together, sometimes in opposite directions. That makes Bitcoin a distinct asset rather than simply a digital version of gold.
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