Arthur Hayes, one of the founders of BitMEX, pointed out that the recent divergence in Bitcoin price with the Nasdaq 100 index could be an important signal in terms of global dollar liquidity. In his new assessment shared on his personal blog, Hayes emphasized that while gold and stocks have risen in recent years, Bitcoin’s weak performance in early 2026 is a predictable development in a tightening liquidity environment.
Bitcoin and Dollar Liquidity Relationship
Arthur Hayes stated that Bitcoin still remains a high beta asset, completely dependent on dollar liquidity, and that the reason why its price lags behind while the Nasdaq rises is due to the slowdown in US-based credit expansion. According to Hayes, this divergence observed in the market points to a period when the current American financial order is challenged in terms of liquidity.
Global Gold Demand and Bitcoin’s Position
Hayes emphasizes that there are two main actors that direct prices in the current market structure: central banks and similar sovereign buyers and liquidity-dependent retail investors. According to him, countries’ turn to gold against the risk of seizure of US-sourced assets has gained momentum since 2022. This trend has significantly weakened gold’s relationship with classical inflation.
However, stating that Bitcoin is not considered a “reserve asset” by central banks at this stage, Hayes points out that BTC price movements mainly proceed in parallel with the change in dollar loan supply. He emphasizes that the weakness in Bitcoin price is not surprising as liquidity in the US dollar decreases. On the other hand, the artificial intelligence-accelerated rise of the Nasdaq index does not directly support the crypto market.
Expectations and Long-Term Outlook for 2026
While Hayes is cautious in the short term, he remains optimistic in the long term. Hayes, who expects a bottom to be seen in the markets for January 2026, predicts that liquidity will be intervened in the future with the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion again and Bitcoin may rise up to $ 250,000.
Arthur Hayes stated that he allocated most of his current position in the markets to Bitcoin, Ethena (ENA) and some privacy-oriented cryptocurrencies. He also expresses the view that in the US political cycle in 2026, both Democratic and Republican administrations will increase total spending, which will support high-risk asset prices.
On the other hand, Blockstream CEO Adam Back points out that the change in consensus mechanism for Bitcoin’s spam problem is the main risk. According to Back, changes that could damage the current trust and stability of the network should be avoided.
Arthur Hayes interprets Bitcoin’s divergence from stocks as a clear indicator of the liquidity contraction in the US dollar.
Adam Back argues that a radical change in Bitcoin’s basic operating principles could pose a direct technical and social risk.
