There is no calm in the Bitcoin market. The latest data shared by the industry’s leading analysis giants such as Matrixport and Glassnode gives serious signals that the largest cryptocurrency has not yet reached its bottom. Bitcoin, which has lost half of its value in recent months, continues to be under downward pressure despite investors’ appetite for “buying the bottom”, creating a deep wave of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency world.
Alarm Bells Are Ringing in Blockchain Data
Glassnode, which keeps its finger on the pulse of the cryptocurrency market, reports that the flow in the option markets has evolved towards “put” since Bitcoin fell below the $ 82,000 level. While open interest and implied volatility are rising, this activity appears to be due to risk management moves made with the instinct to protect existing assets rather than an expectation of an increase. Especially the fact that the cost basis of short-term investors remains at the level of 90,900 dollars proves that the actors who have recently entered the market are faced with large unrealized losses.
In the current chart, where the Bitcoin price is in the range of $68,277, the “Realized Price” data decreased from $55,600 to $54,900 within a week, indicating that the selling pressure has become institutionalized. These below-cost charts make a panic selling or mass capitulation scenario among investors more likely than ever. The fact that the total transaction volume in the market has decreased by 7% in the last 24 hours confirms that traders prefer to stand aside and watch.
The fact that the “Bull Score Index” data shared by CryptoQuant dropped to the zero point reveals that the market sentiment has stabilized in the “extremely bearish” zone. The fact that experienced whales of the sector such as Garrett Jin have started to convert their Bitcoin and Ethereum assets into cash indicates that large capital groups do not expect a recovery in the short term. These liquidations trigger a liquidity squeeze in the market, turning into a fundamental element that feeds the downward spiral.
Cyclical Codes of Bear Markets and Opportunities
According to Matrixport strategists, Bitcoin actually started to lose its momentum starting from mid-2025. The recent increase in sudden withdrawals of 20% or more, which are rarely seen in bull markets, is considered the clearest indicator that the market structure has completely changed. Long-term investors and “OG” whales, the ancient names of the market, sensed this danger in July last year and started to make profits.
Reminding that bear markets do not progress in a linear line, analysts warn that harsh and misleading rally attempts may occur even if the general trend is downwards. Although US inflation data (CPI) shows signs of cooling, Bitcoin’s failure to take this wind behind proves the dominance of the decline in network activity and ETF outflows on the price. It is of strategic importance for investors to follow the clearing of leveraged transactions and the balancing of network mobility in this process.
The current downward trend is described as an inevitable phase within Bitcoin’s historical cycles. Completing the deleverage process and stopping corporate fund outflows will play a key role in determining the real bottom point. As the market loses interest, experts describe the decline in network activity and the ineffectiveness of macroeconomic data on the largest cryptocurrency as a test of patience for “bottom hunters”.
