Solana-based memecoin Official Trump (TRUMP) had reached an all-time high ahead of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. However, this peak also marked the beginning of a long-term downward trend for the token. Despite short-term recovery attempts in the first weeks of 2026, TRUMP is having difficulty regaining investor confidence. The token is trading at $3.26 at the time of writing, having lost more than 42 percent in value since January 14. This figure represents a dramatic decline of nearly 95 percent compared to last year’s peak of $73.43.
Reasons Behind the Sharp Fall in TRUMP Token
TRUMP’s depreciation is driven not only by technical factors but also by macro and political developments. Bitcoin’s decline of approximately 25 percent in the last three weeks has seriously reduced risk appetite in the overall crypto market. However, the investigation launched by Congress into the allegedly Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has further increased the selling pressure on the TRUMP token. Allegations that WLFI may be linked to foreign state capital caused investors to approach Memecoin with caution.
Technical indicators also support the downtrend. While the market structure remains clearly bearish in the daily time frame, the OBV (On-Balance Volume) indicator creates new lows, indicating strong sales volume. The fact that the RSI indicator has been around 20 levels for a long time shows that the token is in the oversold zone. However, this situation reveals weak buying interest rather than the possibility of a strong recovery.
Is Short-Term Recovery Possible?
According to analysts, the first target of a possible short-term recovery for TRUMP may be the imbalance zone between $3.57 and $4.09. However, this area is expected to operate as a strong supply zone and the price will be rejected here. If the $4.40 or $4.72 levels are tested, a new downward wave may be triggered.
On the other hand, a strong rise in Bitcoin above the $74,000 level could theoretically push TRUMP to $5.19. However, the extremely weak purchasing pressure under current market conditions makes this scenario unlikely for now. A similar situation has recently been observed with Elon Musk-themed memecoins; The harsh fluctuations, especially in DOGE derivatives, once again revealed the fragile nature of the memecoin market.
