As the volatile trend continues in the cryptocurrency markets, Solana’s native token SOL has become one of the most talked about assets of recent weeks. SOL, which has lost approximately 38 percent of its value in the last 30 days, fell to 67 dollars on Friday, reaching its lowest level in the last two years. While technical indicators and on-chain data indicate that the decline is not yet complete, some analysts warn that the price may retreat to $30.
Technical Formations Show Red Light for Solana
SOL price has lost more than 72 percent since its cycle peak in January 2025 at around $295. During this sharp pullback process, a clear “head-and-shoulders” (OBO) formation appears to have formed in different time frames. Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus states in the charts it shared that Solana confirms this formation on a macro scale and downside risks continue. According to the analyst, the measured technical target extends to the $50 level.
Similarly, Nextiscrypto identifies a classic OBO pattern on the two-week charts, arguing that the target could be $45. There are also more pessimistic views. Analyst pseudonymous Shitpoastin points out a giant OBO structure spanning two years on the monthly chart and states that there is a “gap” of up to $30. In particular, the break below the neckline around $120 on January 30 is seen as an important threshold that accelerates the sales pressure in technical terms.
Does MVRV Indicator Give Hope for a Bottom?
Although the technical outlook is weak, some on-chain data gives investors hope, albeit limited. Solana’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) extreme deviation bands indicate that the price found support last week near the bottom band, around $75. These bands can indicate possible bottom areas by reflecting the average price at which investors last moved their coins.
When historical data is examined, it can be seen that the SOL price often recovers after falling close to or slightly below this lowest band. After testing around $75 in March 2022, SOL rose 87 percent in just three weeks, reaching $140. A similar movement occurred in December 2020. However, during the FTX crash in November 2022, this indicator created an exception, and the SOL price fell well below the band, falling to $ 7. Therefore, some analysts think that a drop below $75 could trigger a new correction wave and this could coincide with technical OBO targets.
As a result, the picture on the Solana front currently gives contradictory signals. Technical analysis reveals that risks continue in the short and medium term, and the price may even drop to the 30-45 dollar range. However, on-chain data and ecosystem developments suggest that these levels can be considered as an opportunity for long-term investors. However, considering the sharp crashes in the past, a cautious approach and risk management in SOL investment is more important than ever.
