Investor Mark Yusko says the cryptocurrency market is still moving through a classic cycle, even as institutional participation has grown dramatically. “We’re in crypto winter,” he said, adding that many investors assumed the traditional four-year cycle had ended once large institutions and ETFs began accumulating Bitcoin. Yet, according to Yusko, price behavior hints the historical cycle structure is still influencing markets.
He pointed out that institutional investors last year “bought four times more than the amount of Bitcoin that was mined,” yet prices still declined. The reason, he explained, is that long-term holders who accumulated coins years earlier also sold into rallies, adding supply that offset institutional buying.
Futures Markets Now Drive Price Movements
Yusko said that Bitcoin’s price is no longer determined mainly by spot transactions. “The price of Bitcoin isn’t necessarily set only by spot,” he said, explaining that derivatives markets, particularly futures, now dominate trading activity. Because large leveraged positions can push prices higher or lower quickly, futures markets can sometimes suppress price gains even when underlying demand appears strong.
Where Could Bitcoin Bottom?
Using historical cycle patterns, Yusko suggested that previous bear markets often pushed Bitcoin down toward long-term trend indicators such as the 200-week moving average. Based on current conditions, he said potential downside levels could fall into the range around the high-$50,000s to low-$60,000s before a durable bottom forms.
He also noted that the latest cycle peak was not as far above estimated “fair value” as in previous cycles, meaning the current correction may not need to fall as deeply as earlier downturns.
Human Behavior Still Shapes Crypto Markets
Despite the growing role of algorithms and institutional trading, Yusko said investor psychology remains a dominant force behind crypto market cycles. “Humans are going to human,” he said, explaining that investors often buy when prices are rising and sell when liquidity is needed, reinforcing repeating boom-and-bust patterns across the market.
Recovery Likely Requires a Breakout Catalyst
According to Yusko, the next sustained rally may begin only when strong buying pressure breaks through the current ceiling created by derivatives positioning, potentially triggering a large short squeeze. Until that happens, he expects the market to trade in a volatile range, with gradual stabilization rather than an immediate return to record highs.
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