Bitcoin fell to $60,001, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. On-chain data reveals that large investors are reducing positions, while small investors continue to use declines as buying opportunities. This contrasting behavior of the market has reignited discussions that a bear market could deepen even further compared to past cycles.
Whales Are Retreating, Small Wallets Are Buying
According to data shared by crypto analysis company Santiment, “whale and shark” wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC control 68.04 percent of the total Bitcoin supply. This rate was recorded as the lowest level in the last nine months. The same data shows that these major wallets sold approximately 81,068 BTC in the last eight days alone.
In contrast, the share of small wallets with less than 0.01 BTC in assets increased to 0.249 percent. This level stands out as the highest rate in the last 20 months. Santiment states that this increase shows that small investors see price declines as a buying opportunity and continue to have confidence in the market. However, the company also emphasizes that historically, when large investors sell, individual investors tend to buy, which generally coincides with bear market conditions. According to Santiment, the whales may continue selling until a clear “surrender” is seen among the wider public.
Peter Brandt’s $42K Warning and Market Comparisons
Experienced trader Peter Brandt says that if the decline in Bitcoin deepens, the $ 42,000 level may be a critical support area. Brandt describes the current process as a withdrawal phase, which he calls the “banana peel.” According to him, the price may slide towards the lower band of the long-term ascending channel, and this region may serve as a floor, as in past cycles. TradingView charts also show that Bitcoin still remains within the long-term ascending channel on the monthly timeframe, but the risk of testing the lower band has increased.
In parallel with these developments, it is reported that there have been net outflows from US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks. While ETF outflows indicate that the cautious stance on the corporate side has strengthened, when combined with on-chain data, it suggests that the selling pressure may be not only individual but also corporate.
The overall picture shows that uncertainty is increasing in the cryptocurrency market. While the sales of whales create pressure in the short term, purchases by small investors can prevent the price from experiencing sharp declines. But past cycles remind us that this balance can often be disrupted several times before a clear bottom is formed. In the coming period, both on-chain data and macro developments will be decisive in terms of Bitcoin’s direction.
