Veteran market analyst Gareth Soloway has outlined several possible paths for Bitcoin’s price, including a worst-case scenario that could see the cryptocurrency fall sharply if global financial markets face a major downturn.
In a recent market update, Soloway said Bitcoin is currently holding an important price area and has shown more resilience than U.S. stock markets, which he expects to remain under pressure in the months ahead.
He added that while equities may continue to struggle, some capital could rotate into Bitcoin, helping limit further downside in the near term.
Bitcoin Shows Near-Term Stability
Soloway said that Bitcoin recently moved lower but managed to close back above important chart levels. This behavior, he said, suggests buyers are still active at current prices.
The area around $73,000–$74,000 has acted as a strong zone of interest, as it previously marked a major breakout point. Bitcoin also reacted sharply near $73,000, bouncing almost precisely from that level.
Because of this, Soloway says Bitcoin could see a short-term bounce, even if broader market risks remain.
Bounce May Face Selling Pressure Near $85,000–$86,000
If Bitcoin rebounds, Soloway expects selling pressure to emerge around the $85,000 to $86,000 range. This zone previously acted as support before breaking down and is now likely to limit upside in the short run.
He stressed that any rebound into this area would not necessarily signal the start of a new bull market and could be followed by renewed weakness.
Base Scenario Points to $55,000 Area
Looking further ahead, Soloway outlined his base scenario, which assumes a typical market correction rather than a severe financial crisis.
Drawing on past Bitcoin cycles, he noted that during previous downturns Bitcoin often fell roughly 20% below the prior cycle’s all-time high. Applying that pattern to the 2021 peak near $69,000 suggests a possible move toward the $55,000 region.
He said this area aligns with historical trading activity and could act as a longer-term floor if market conditions remain relatively orderly.
Soloway added that he would look to accumulate Bitcoin gradually if prices move into the $55,000–$65,000 range.
Worst-Case Scenario Sees Bitcoin Near $35,000
Soloway said a much deeper drop would likely require a sharp collapse in global equity markets, potentially involving losses of 30% to 50%.
In such a case, Bitcoin’s chart has formed a large head-and-shoulders pattern, a bearish structure that can signal deeper declines. If fully played out, this pattern points to a potential fall toward $34,000 to $35,000.
He warned that this scenario is not his central expectation and would only occur under extreme market stress.
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