Bitcoin In the new week, it moved to deeper bottoms rather than the CME gap and fell to $ 74,604. Although it has started to recover from the bottom level for now, we mentioned yesterday that such a move will occur as we move towards the Asian market opening. BTC to CME GAP Since it did not move, Asian investors turned to selling. Now our eyes are on the US market opening. So what do QCP analysts say?
Kevin Warsh Rocked Cryptocurrencies
QCP Capital analysts It’s been focused on the Warsh effect we’ve been talking about since Friday. Donald Trump chose the person who will be the new Fed President, but this name drowned the risk markets because he was not in favor of QE (monetary expansion) and his self-contradiction during his term would threaten the independence of the Fed.
Analysts wrote:
“BTCfell below the 80K support level on Saturday as markets digested the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. This move triggered a new wave of deleveraging, with BTC briefly reaching the 74.5K level while ETH fell below 2,170. Leveraged long positions worth more than $2.5 billion were liquidated, adding to downward pressure on prices and further weakening market sentiment already tense with continued ETF outflows. BTC is currently recording its fourth consecutive monthly decline.
Risk aversion continued to ripple through markets following Warsh’s announcement, weighing on stocks and spilling over into traditional safe-haven assets. Gold and silver have pulled back further from overbought levels as investors reassess the likely policy path of the Warsh-led Fed, with markets seeing a higher likelihood of earlier policy normalization or even tightening. “This negatively affected the demand for non-yielding precious metals and was further amplified by higher margin requirements imposed by futures exchanges, which accelerated the liquidation of leveraged positions.”
Has Bitcoin Reached the Bottom?
BTC It is still below $78,000 and the last 4 1-hour bullish candles are signaling a reversal. But the bulls are very discouraged as many critical levels, including the ETF average cost, have been lost and we have seen prolonged closes below. FUD on CZ is also the largest in terms of volume cryptocurrency threatens the stock market and this situation is not only Binance It negatively affects all markets, not just the stock market.
Regarding the bottom, QCP Capital analysts pointed out the fragility of the price.
“BTC is currently stabilizing above $74.5K. This is a technically important level and is consistent with the 2025 cycle lows. Options markets remain cautious, with the trend still shifting decisively towards put options, although downside hedging appears less aggressive than in previous periods of stress. In November, when BTC fell from $107K to $80.5K, the trend reached more extreme levels, significantly higher than those observed today around $75K.” The moderation in hedging demand reflecting a reduction in the total BTC position may also indicate that some investors are starting to position for a potential short-term base.
However, price movements are still fragile. Momentum remains bearish and upside remains limited near recent resistance levels, leaving markets subject to liquidation-induced movements. In this context, managing downside risk selectively remains prudent. Structurally, this can be expressed by short seagull providing downside protection with limited participation using put spread financed by selling out-of-the-money calls.”
What we will watch in the short term is whether we see closings below $74,000. If this happens, it will return to the 2024 window. However, if there is a return above 80 thousand dollars in the short term, a bottom return environment may occur with the normalization of the option trend and ETF support. The recovery from similar levels last year was supported by strong spot ETF inflows and overall strength in risk assets as trading declines eased. Today’s environment is different and Warsh is risky for both 2026 and the following period.
Trump is uncomfortable with the current situation. If Warsh opposition to QE If he states that he will not be the main focus in his new position, there may be a rapid turnaround in the markets. Maybe Trump can force him to do this and make the first of his successful direct interventions against the Fed.
