In the first month of 2026, Bitcoin fell to the level of $ 75,000, giving back almost all of the gains it has made since the spring of last year. The cryptocurrency market, which followed a stagnant course in the first half of 2025, attracted attention with a strong rally in the second half of the year, and Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $ 124,700 in October 2025. However, this increase was not permanent and prices entered a steady downward trend in the last four months.
Economic and Political Factors Behind the Decline
One of the most important reasons for the sharp retreat in Bitcoin was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the President of the US Federal Reserve. Warsh’s hawkish monetary policy stance has strengthened the expectation that interest rate cuts may slow down or even stop altogether. While this situation supported the US dollar, it reduced interest in risky assets such as Bitcoin. Increasing geopolitical and trade tensions during the same period also pushed investors to a more cautious stance.
Another important factor stands out as capital rotation. Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin has struggled to rise alongside gold and silver. As prices began to pull back, the unwinding of highly leveraged positions brought about large liquidations. Thus, the decline that started slowly turned into a harsh sales wave due to the effect of forced sales rather than investor panic. In addition, the decrease in interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs and the risk reduction of institutional investors increased the selling pressure.
However, Kevin O’Leary maintains his long-term optimism about the market despite the sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin. According to O’Leary, the current decline represents a transition period in which the market cleans itself up rather than investor panic. Arguing that regulatory uncertainties must be eliminated in order for Bitcoin to achieve a truly strong and sustainable rise, O’Leary emphasizes that it is critical to implement clear legal frameworks such as the Clarity Act, especially in the USA.
According to him, once adequate regulation is ensured and the price reaches the $150,000 to $200,000 band, Bitcoin could become an economically neutral choice between mining and major technology infrastructures, paving the way for institutional capital to enter the market more strongly.
Technical Outlook and Market Psychology
Technical indicators still show a subdued outlook for Bitcoin. While trend indicators such as MACD confirm the downward trend, it is noteworthy that the Relative Strength Index has fallen into the oversold region. In the past, these levels have indicated periods when selling pressure weakened and short-term recoveries began. Therefore, it is thought that the level around $77,000 may constitute stronger support than it seems.
Looking beyond the charts, market sentiment is more resilient than expected. The fact that Bitcoin’s market dominance remains at 59.82 percent shows that capital is still directed towards Bitcoin, not altcoins. This indicates that investors prefer to maintain their positions in the main asset rather than exiting the market completely.
