In the cryptocurrency market, XRP has attracted the attention of investors again by trading around $ 1.7 in the monthly time frame. This level corresponds to a structurally important region determined by long-term market cycles rather than short-term fluctuations. Evaluations shared by analyst Egrag Crypto reveal that XRP is in a similar phase to past market cycles and is approaching a critical decision point on whether the price will continue or experience a structural break. In this process, market psychology and macro developments play a decisive role as much as technical indicators.
Cycle Structure and the Meaning of Fibonacci Extensions
The main element that stands out in Egrag Crypto’s analysis is the symmetrical structure that the XRP price has exhibited in past cycles. Historically, the strongest price expansions in XRP occurred not in the first upward wave, but in the second momentum that followed. While the second rise in the 2017 cycle was carried up to the Fibonacci 2.618 extension, in 2021 this movement was limited to the Fib 1.618 level. According to the analyst, this situation is considered as a result of external developments at that time rather than a structural weakness.
Looking at the current chart in the light of this data, it can be seen that XRP is still in the macro correction phase that occurred after the first rise. This indicates that the second acceleration has not yet become active. Fibonacci levels are treated here as tools that provide probability maps, not exact targets. So, if history repeats itself, there is a possibility that the real strong price movement has not started yet.
21 Month EMA and Historical Reaction Point
Another technical element that draws attention in the analysis is the 21 exponential moving average (EMA) on the monthly chart. XRP price is currently testing this average. In the past, in both the 2018 and 2021 cycles, the initial contact with the 21 EMA after the first major rally resulted in a strong relief bounce. However, after these leaps, wider structural dissolutions occurred.
The fact that these first contact points, marked with white circles on the chart, overlap almost exactly between cycles shows that the level in question is a historical reaction area. Although this situation increases the possibility of a recovery in the short term, it suggests that the long-term direction is not yet clear. In other words, this region stands out as an area where the possibilities temporarily change balance, rather than a definitive break signal.
On the other hand, not only technical analysis but also fundamental developments are closely monitored on the XRP front. The recent news flow regarding the course of the legal process between Ripple and US regulatory authorities and expectations for XRP-based financial products are among the factors affecting market perception. Such developments, when combined with technical cycles, have the potential to accelerate price movements.
As a general assessment, XRP’s current position is neither a clear promise of an uptrend nor an inevitable decline. Historical cycles and technical indicators show that the market is at an important threshold. For investors, this period stands out as a period when they should focus on risk management rather than hasty decisions.
