Decentralized prediction platform polymarkethas opened up crypto volatility to a wider audience of investors by launching new contracts that make it easier to trade for fluctuations in the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets. volmex Products based on indices developed by , focus on whether price volatility will reach certain levels by the end of 2026. The contracts, which opened for trading on Monday at 16:13 US Eastern time, make it possible to take positions on market activity regardless of the direction forecast. Thus, volatility transactions gain a simpler structure, moving away from the complex derivative strategies dominated by institutional investors.
New Volatility-Based Contracts at Polymarket
The newly listed contracts are based on 30-day implied volatility indices that Volmex calculates for Bitcoin and Ethereum. “What level will the Bitcoin Volatility Index see in 2026?” and “What level will the Ethereum Volatility Index see in 2026?” Titled contracts give a “Yes” result if any minute candle data exceeds the specified threshold until the end of the year. Otherwise, the contracts are closed with “No”.
The minute candle structure reflects the price’s open, close, highs and lows over a 60-second time frame, accounting for even extremely short-term bounces. This approach allows investors to benefit from momentary bursts of volatility. The logic of the contract focuses on the severity of the movement rather than whether the price will rise or fall.
This step by Polymarket simplifies volatility-related transactions and makes them accessible to individual users. Strategies that were previously only possible with combinations of options or volatility futures can now be implemented with a single “Yes/No” decision. The platform thus lowers the participation threshold in the crypto derivatives market.
From Institutional Volatility Tools to Individual Investor
Cole Kennelly, founder and CEO of Volmex Labs, describes the collaboration with Polymarket as an important milestone for the crypto derivatives market. In his statement to CoinDesk, Kennelly emphasized that institutionally accepted BTC and ETH volatility indicators have been moved to an intuitive prediction market format. He stated that in this way, investors can express their expectations regarding implied volatility more directly.
Early trading suggests the market is preparing for a volatile year. According to initial pricing, the probability of Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index rising from the current 40 percent to 80 percent is seen as approximately 35 percent. On the Ethereum side, the possibility of the volatility, which is around 50 percent, reaching 90 percent is priced with a similar expectation.
On the other hand, it is known that the relationship between implied volatility and spot price has turned largely negative since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the USA. This indicates that increases in volatility are more often accompanied by price declines. Therefore, new contracts offer investors the opportunity to take positions not only on the direction but also on the degree of market stress.
