Global investment management company ARK Invest put forward an ambitious projection for the cryptocurrency market in its Big Ideas 2026 report. According to the report, Bitcoin could reach a size of $16 trillion by 2030, accounting for approximately 70 percent of the total crypto market value. This scenario indicates that cryptocurrencies can cease to be merely speculative tools and can take on a central role in the global financial system. ARK’s analysis reveals that Bitcoin is entering a long-term transformation shaped by institutional adoption, risk profile and supply dynamics.
Bitcoin’s 2030 Roadmap: 16 Trillion Dollar Scenario
ARK Invest predicts that the total market value of smart contract networks and assets in the “pure digital currency” category could reach $28 trillion by 2030. The report states that cryptocurrencies, which are used as a store of value, medium of exchange and unit of account on public blockchains, could achieve a compound annual growth rate of approximately 61 percent by the end of the decade. In this context, Bitcoin is expected to represent approximately 70 percent of the total market in question.
Projections made specifically for Bitcoin paint an even more striking picture. According to ARK, BTC’s market value could rise from $2 trillion to $16 trillion in the coming years, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 63 percent. Behind this scenario are Bitcoin’s limited supply structure, increasing institutional demand and the increasingly stronger perception of a “digital safe haven”.
The report also emphasizes that by 2025, US-based Bitcoin ETFs and publicly traded companies hold 12 percent of the total Bitcoin supply. While ETF balances increased by 19.7 percent during the year, from approximately 1.12 million BTC to 1.3 million BTC, BTC assets of public companies increased by 73 percent, reaching 1.09 million BTC. These data show that the influence of institutional actors on Bitcoin is rapidly increasing.
Smart Contracts, Return on Risk and the “Few Winners” Thesis
ARK Invest draws a more selective picture for cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. The report predicts that the market value of smart contract platforms could rise to approximately $6 trillion by 2030, with an annual growth rate of 54 percent. It is stated that this growth will be supported by an annual income generation of 192 billion dollars with an average income rate of 0.75 percent. However, ARK argues that most of this market will be dominated by just two or three Layer 1 networks.
It is noted that Bitcoin has a clear advantage on the risk-adjusted return side. According to ARK’s analysis, BTC’s average annual Sharpe Ratio has trended above Ethereum, Solana, and other major assets on the CoinDesk 10 Index through most of 2025. It is emphasized that Bitcoin has a more stable performance, based on the last cycle bottom in November 2022, the beginning of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. At the same time, volatility has decreased over time, strengthening the view that Bitcoin is evolving into a more mature asset class.
There is also a significant divergence in the valuation structure of Layer 1 networks. ARK calculates that when a multiplier as high as 50x is applied to Ethereum’s network revenue, more than 90 percent of its market capitalization is based on its monetary role. On the Solana side, it is stated that the revenue generation of 1.4 billion dollars shows that approximately 90 percent of the valuation depends on network usage. In line with these analyses, ARK reaches the conclusion that only a limited number of digital assets can be liquid stores of value by preserving their monetary properties in the long term.
