Bitcoin investors experienced a sharp break on the profitability front, writing a net loss for the first time in more than two years. Weekly on-chain data reveals that sales since the end of December have resulted in losses and this situation has spread over the last 30 days. The development comes at a time when price momentum in the leading crypto asset is weakening and market sentiment is approaching a downward cycle. Data indicate that the transformation in profit dynamics is similar to previous major cycles.
Things Have Turned Upside Down in Snow Dynamics
On-chain analytics company CryptoQuantreported that a net realized loss of approximately 69 thousand BTC has occurred on the Bitcoin network since December 23. According to the weekly assessment, it is the first time since October 2023 that a net loss has been seen in a 30-day period. A significant portion of the sales realized during this period show that investors closed positions at prices below their costs.
While it is pointed out that realized profits have gradually decreased since March 2024, it is emphasized that profitability has eroded as prices lost momentum in the rising phase. Analysts compare the current picture with the 2021–2022 cycle. The fact that net profits peaked in January 2021 subsequently produced lower local peaks and eventually turned into losses suggests a similar timeline.
It is stated that the same pattern is followed in the current cycle. Net profits peaked in January 2024; It continued with lower peaks in December 2024, July 2025, and October 2025. In the last stage, the margin turns negative, indicating that network participants have incurred a net loss.
Signs of Early Stage Bearish Conditions
According to the data, net realized profits in Bitcoin were at the level of 4.4 million BTC in October 2025, but currently decreased to 2.5 million BTC. This level corresponds to a point not seen since March 2024 and is similar to early bear conditions in March 2022. At that time, price momentum weakened and selling pressure was reflected in on-chain metrics.
The course of net realized losses also coincides with the past cycle. As the downward trend deepened in March 2022, investor behavior showed that below-cost sales increased. In the current period, readings that point to a similar psychology come to the fore; Market participants are cautious and short-term recovery attempts remain limited.
No significant improvement is observed on the demand side. Although a limited recovery in demand conditions has been reported in recent weeks, there has been no significant acceleration in inflows from spot indicators and exchange-traded funds. On the contrary, it is stated that demand has decreased in the last 30 days. Before CryptoPotato The findings reported by also point to a picture consistent with this weak outlook.
