As the search for direction in the Bitcoin market continues, the performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the US is becoming an increasingly important indicator for investors. These products, which are seen as the gateway to the market for institutional investors, give strong signals about the short and medium-term direction of Bitcoin, especially with their liquidity flows. In this sensitive period when Bitcoin is stuck between 90 thousand and 100 thousand dollars, ETF movements can determine the fate of the price.
Why Are ETF Flows So Important for Bitcoin?
Latest data reveals that money flowing in and out of the market through ETFs paints an inconsistent picture. While there was a net outflow of approximately $394 million in US spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 16, a net inflow exceeding $100 million was recorded the day before. Although daily fluctuations are high, it is noteworthy that weekly cumulative inflows reached 1.4 billion dollars. This indicates that both buyers and sellers are taking strong positions in the market.
The analysis shared by CryptoQuant goes beyond the headline numbers and focuses on Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark Invest’s ARKB. According to the report, these two ETFs exhibit a stronger correlation with the Bitcoin price than other products. Cumulative flows in these funds in particular provide a clearer window into understanding Bitcoin’s true demand structure. Therefore, FBTC and ARKB data are critical for investors who want to analyze medium and long-term trends rather than short-term price volatility.
Is Corporate Momentum Weakening?
Liquidity trends in FBTC and ARKB show that the necessary ground has not yet been formed for a strong and permanent rise in Bitcoin. While FBTC has not been able to make a new peak since March 2025, ARKB has been following a downward trend since July. This chart reveals that corporate capital inflows have slowed down significantly compared to previous rally periods.
Bitcoin is known to exhibit similar movements as these ETFs in the past. The report draws attention to the relationship between Strategy stock (MSTR) and Bitcoin in 2024. After peaking, MSTR could not establish new highs and entered a long-term downward trend. The fact that Bitcoin followed a similar path in the same period once again demonstrated the importance of liquidity signals. It is considered that the ongoing outflows in ETFs today may put additional pressure on Bitcoin.
At this point, BlackRock’s IBIT product stands out. IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF with approximately $74.5 billion in assets, carries out a significant portion of its transactions through over-the-counter markets. Therefore, although its direct effect on the spot price is limited, it plays a stabilizing role in the market during periods of sharp decline. However, the recent outflows in IBIT show that the general corporate slowdown has also affected this fund.
On the other hand, as a different development regarding the market, the postponement of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations puts pressure on risky assets. This is considered as an additional signal that corporate appetite for cryptocurrencies may remain limited in the short term.
