Although Bitcoin’s recent rise gives the impression of a strong recovery at first glance, the technical structure indicates that this may be a “fake breakout” rather than a permanent reversal. Although the price managed to overcome short-term resistances and reclaim some moving averages, the momentum disappeared as soon as it entered the intense technical zone formed by the 100 and 200 exponential moving averages (EMA). This shows that the market is still cautious and buyers remain reluctant at the upper levels. In the same period, Shiba Inu and XRP have not yet tested similar resistances; This suggests that the real test in the crypto market may occur in the coming days.
Why Is Bitcoin Recovery Attempt Unsafe?
A true trend reversal in Bitcoin is usually seen when resistance is broken through with strong volume or a brief pause followed by a continuation of the uptrend. However, in the last rise, the price quickly began to hesitate after gaining sudden momentum. The increase in volume was not permanent and weakened in a short time. This picture suggests that short position closings and trapping of late buyers are more effective than real spot accumulation in the market.
More importantly, Bitcoin is still in a broad correction phase. The fact that the 200 EMA is turning downwards rather than horizontalizing clearly indicates that the long-term trend is weakening. Unless this level is reclaimed, any attempt to rise should be viewed with suspicion. The current price action looks more like a relief rally within the main downtrend than the beginning of a new uptrend. Momentum indicators like the RSI also point to a mechanical reaction after oversold rather than a strong trend reversal.
Technical Pressure Continues on SHIB and XRP
On the Shiba Inu front, the price is entering a critical juncture as it approaches the 100-day EMA for the third time. After months of decline, the selling pressure decreases and the price gets stuck in a narrow band, which may pave the way for a directional movement. Although the previous two attempts were unsuccessful, the decrease in volatility and the earlier involvement of buyers indicate that the technical structure has partially improved. However, if permanence above the 100 EMA cannot be achieved, it is possible that SHIB will enter a horizontal and damaging process.
XRP, on the other hand, displays a weaker appearance. Three local waves forming within a downward sloping channel indicate that buyers remain defensive in the market. While each recovery remains weaker than the previous one, the 50 and 100 EMAs put pressure on the price, maintaining a bearish trend. For a real recovery, XRP must break this channel and reclaim the important moving averages.
In addition to this picture, uncertainty regarding the US central bank’s interest rate policy in global markets and fluctuating fund inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs also put pressure on crypto assets. The slowdown in ETF inflows in recent weeks stands out as an important factor explaining why the increases could not be permanent.
