We are now approaching the end of January 2026 and Bitcoin is maintaining $94 thousand as support. Many investors sold in the last quarter of 2025 because they thought 2026 would be a repeat of 2022. Although the four-year cycle narrative tells them it’s the right time to sell, this month’s rise and fall of BTC The current situation shows that 2022 may not repeat in 2026. So what are the expectations until 2029?
Cryptocurrency Cycle
CryptoCon does not believe that the block reward halving theory will collapse. HCT reinforced with Fibonacci zones (halving cycle theory) The analyst who shared his chart is a road map line that will motivate those who made sales in the last quarter of 2025. There will be 5 phases in total and we are now in the first phase. So the bottom of the cycle is approaching.
- Cycle Bottom: November 2026 – January 2027
- First Early Peak: June – July 2027
- Second Early Peak: April – August 2028
- First Cycle Summit: January – June 2029
- Cycle Peak: October – December 2029
2026 Cryptocurrency Forecast
If historical data repeats itself, by the November midterm elections crypto coins It means good days are not waiting. However, it is necessary to understand well the difference between previous cycles and the current cycle.
- There were no spot BTC and altcoin ETFs in previous cycles.
- There was no institutional adoption.
- The US was not passing cryptocurrency-friendly laws.
- Banks had not started providing cryptocurrency services.
- Traditional finance had not taken action towards the ideal of a new financial infrastructure based on blockchain.
- There were no US cryptocurrency reserves.
- The world’s largest card companies had not issued cards with crypto rewards.
Moreover, in line with previous cycles, the Fed is expected to enter the monetary expansion phase this year. As a matter of fact, bull markets in the past have always been during QE periods and Q.T. It is possible to say that the rise phase of the return is also prolonged because it is getting longer. The Fed will want to continue interest rate cuts more quickly, especially when the president appointed by Trump arrives in May.
If we are only going to be stuck with historical data and this cycle story is going to continue, we have to come from seeing violations of historical patterns. FTX For the first time during the collapse period, the previous cycle peak could not be maintained as support. Because, while there was already a great destruction under the conditions of that day, we also saw abnormal results as it was revealed that the second largest cryptocurrency exchange had defrauded its customers. Maybe in 2026, when the market has already peaked, we will see abnormal supportive developments produce the opposite result of 2022?
