With the entry of 2026, the cryptocurrency market has entered a period in which the transformation in the market structure will come to the fore rather than price movements. Global macroeconomic uncertainty is now shaping the Bitcoin cycle through greater institutional capital flows and tightening market mechanics. New analysis published by Kraken reveals that the rapid price reactions seen in past cycles have been replaced by large-volume but more controlled liquidity absorption.
Institutional Fund Flows Are Redefining the Bitcoin Cycle
Thomas Perfumo, Kraken’s global chief economist, emphasized that Bitcoin is still the main indicator of risk perception, and stated that demand and liquidity channels have changed significantly. While spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the USA and companies holding cryptocurrency treasuries are becoming increasingly effective in price formation, it was noteworthy that price performance remained below expectations despite a net spot demand of approximately $44 billion throughout 2025. According to the analysis, the supply from long-term investors balanced this strong demand.
According to Perfumo, this structure indicates a more mature phase in which the market can absorb large inflows without the “reflexive” rises seen in past cycles. On the macro front, limited growth expectations, persistent inflation pressure and a slower monetary easing process continue to put pressure on risky assets. The warning that calm periods may hide delayed volatility also stands out in this context.
Kraken also sees stablecoin liquidity reaching historic highs and accelerating regulatory steps in the US as defining pillars of 2026. Stablecoin-focused initiatives like the GENIUS Act and broader market structure reforms are expected to reshape where and how on-blockchain liquidity occurs.
Macro Pressures and New Growth Areas
According to Kraken’s report, the loss of momentum on the corporate front also stands out as a striking factor. The slowdown in ETF inflows in 2025 compared to the previous year and the difficulty for treasury companies to provide funding through share issuances indicate that a strong momentum on the Bitcoin side may be limited without a clear “risk-on” environment.
A similar macro priority emphasis was also included in the ARK Invest 2026 outlook shared by Cathie Wood. Recalling that Bitcoin will decline by 6 percent despite gold rising by 65 percent in 2025, Wood argued that the largest cryptocurrency plays a unique role in portfolio diversification with its long-term supply constraint and low correlation structure. The fact that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is lower than the correlation between the S&P 500 and bonds supports this argument.
In areas other than Bitcoin, tokenization and DeFi token economies stand out as long-term driving forces. Standard Chartered analysts predict that the Ethereum network may experience a relatively stronger performance as the movement of real-world assets into Blockchain accelerates. Perfumo noted that tokenization of common assets, especially large-scale US equities, could expand global demand and intra-Blockchain consensus activity.
