The maturity of high-volume options, one of the most critical headlines of the week in cryptocurrency derivative markets, became the focus of investors as of Friday, January 16. The same-day expiry of Bitcoin and Ethereum options, with a total nominal value of approximately $2.8 billion, is being closely monitored for price behavior. Despite the recovery seen in the markets since the beginning of the week, the calm outlook in derivative transactions weakens the possibility of a harsh impact on spot prices. Analysts consider the current situation as a short-term reaction movement rather than a strong change in direction.
Searching for Balance in Bitcoin Option Expiry
While approximately 25,000 Bitcoin option contracts have expired today, the total nominal size of these contracts is around 2.4 billion dollars. The fact that the put/call ratio is 1.2 shows that sell positions have gained weight, albeit limited. The fact that the max pain level is located around $ 92,000 indicates that a significant part of the options may be closed in profit if the price remains close to this region at the time of expiration.
Open position data clearly reveals which levels the market focuses on. While there is an open position of approximately $2.2 billion on Deribit at a strike price of $100,000, an additional concentration of $1.2 billion at the $75,000 level attracts attention. According to Coinglass data, the total Bitcoin option open position across all exchanges has reached 39 billion dollars.
Despite the price approaching $97,000 again, the lack of a significant increase in futures volume and the limited implied volatility indicate that the market remains cautious. Greeks Live emphasizes that the derivatives market has not yet entered a structural upward phase, and that the movement is more of a short-term response to a sudden price increase.
Ethereum and Outlook on the Spot Market
In addition to Bitcoin option contracts, approximately 131,000 Ethereum options expire on the same day. While the total nominal value of these contracts is at the level of 436 million dollars, the maximum pain point is calculated as 3,200 dollars. A put/call ratio close to 1 indicates a relatively balanced positioning between buyers and sellers. The total open position size in Ethereum options is around 9 billion dollars.
On the general market front, although the total market value decreased to 3.32 trillion dollars with a limited decline in the last 24 hours, the 4 percent increase on a weekly basis is maintained. While Bitcoin retreated to $95,670 in the Asian session, Ethereum fell to the $3,300 region with sales coming from just below $3,400. While most of the altcoins showed a weak picture, Tron diverged with a limited rise. More significant losses were observed on the XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano and Monero side.
