Bitcoin rose above $95,000, seeing its highest levels in the last two months, creating strong optimism again in the cryptocurrency market. However, on-chain data and exchange-based indicators indicate that this rise is mainly supported by investors outside the US. Although the price increase is impressive, the emerging picture regarding the source of demand raises some question marks about the sustainability of the rally.
Breakdown in Graphs is Strong, But Demand Balance is Different
After being stuck in the $92,000–93,000 band for several days, Bitcoin rose to the $95,800–96,000 region with a sharp increase in volume. This movement is a vertical break that occurs in a short time. Despite the limited pullback near the peak, the price’s attempt to hold on above $94,500 shows that buyers have not exited the market yet.
From a technical perspective, the higher lows and subsequent momentum-driven rise since mid-January suggest that the short-term trend is still upward. However, this technical strengthening does not fully coincide with US-based spot demand indicators. According to CryptoQuant data, the Coinbase Premium Index has been mostly negative since November. This implies that US investors are more cautious or are on the sell side as the price rises.
On the other hand, the significant increase in transaction volume on global exchanges such as Binance reveals that the increase is mostly carried by non-US liquidity. This divergence indicates that although the price seems strong, the demand structure may be one-sided.
Why Are US Investors Cautious?
The fact that Coinbase Premium remains negative suggests that US-based investors are either in a wait-and-see position or limiting their appetite due to regulatory uncertainty. The postponement of the Senate process of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which aims to clarify the legal framework of digital assets, is seen as one of the main reasons for this caution. Investors do not want to take more aggressive positions before the rules are clarified.
On the other hand, another notable development in the market was that a Kraken-related SPAC applied for an initial public offering of approximately $250 million on Nasdaq. This news shows that corporate crypto infrastructure in the US still has growth potential. However, the fact that spot demand remains weak despite such positive developments reveals that a strong purchasing wave originating from the USA may be difficult before regulatory clarity arrives.
All in all, Bitcoin’s performance above $95,000 is technically impressive and shows that global liquidity is still entering the market. However, as long as the participation of US investors remains limited, there is a high risk that this rise will be fragile. If Coinbase Premium turns positive again, it will be a strong signal that the rally has reached a healthier and more balanced structure. Otherwise, it would not be surprising to see sharp fluctuations as global momentum weakens.
