There has been a remarkable dissolution in the Bitcoin market in the last year. Internal blockchain data shows that large addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC sold a total of 220,000 coins. The movement, which points to the fastest decline since the beginning of 2023, suggests that we have entered a critical period in terms of price trends. Compared to past cycles, similar sales are known to occur before the peak.
What Does the Sharp Downturn in Whale Wallets Mean?
According to data from intra-blockchain analysis company CryptoQuant, the balances of wallets holding between 1,000–10,000 BTC have decreased significantly in the last 12 months. Addresses of this size are often associated with institutional investors and actors who can influence market direction. Cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoBusy pointed out in its assessment that the decrease in question occurred at a pace similar to the sharp thaw in the 2021-2022 period.
In past cycles, such declines in whale balances have been observed to occur just before price peaks. It is known that the same wallets accumulated more than 400,000 BTC in growth phases such as 2020–2021 and 2023–2024. The current picture suggests that large investors are more cautious about carrying long-term positions at current price levels.
On the other hand, there are also indicators that indicate that the market is not overheating. The MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value with its average purchase price, is around 1.6. Historically, this ratio is known to have risen above 4.5 before cycle peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021. On-chain analyst CW8900 argues that the real rise will begin when MVRV enters the red zone.
Price Expectations and Short-Term Risks
A possible pullback scenario is increasingly being talked about on the technical analysis front. Chart analyst Ali Martinez predicts that in the current cycle, the bottom could form in about 267 days and the price could fall into the $38,000–$50,000 band. It is reminded that the harsh corrections experienced in 2018 and 2022 lasted nearly a year and brought losses exceeding 75 percent from the peak.
According to the same cycle projections, the theoretical peak for Bitcoin is positioned around $126,000. A 70 percent pullback from such a level could push the price to the $37,500 region. In the short term, it is considered that the $ 70,000 area may be the first stop if the selling pressure increases.
Whale movements in the stock markets present a more complex picture. It has been observed that major wallets on Binance, Coinbase and Kraken have made net purchases in recent days, and then the price was pulled down with limited sales. According to CW8900, this behavior indicates a gradual accumulation strategy from current levels. Bitcoin has stabilized around $92,000 after testing $92,400 during the week.
