While Bitcoin briefly fell below the miner breakeven cost of approximately $101,999 on January 12, internal blockchain data and macro headlines brought the possibility of a possible short-term recovery in the market back to the agenda. The price action has created a clear divide between analysts who argue that demand is returning and those who believe that the technical outlook remains fragile. The market is trying to simultaneously price the historical behavior around miner costs and the impact of political-economic uncertainties.
Intra-Blockchain Indicators and Macro Agenda Surrounding Bitcoin
Some commentators focusing on intra-blockchain analysis suggest that the recent pullback masks underlying strength. Analyst Wise Crypto emphasized that capital flows are starting to bottom out and that periods when the price is below the miner’s cost have coincided with long-term bottoms in past cycles. Miners’ production costs have historically been tracked as areas where supply pressure has eased and buyers have become more selective.
On the macro front, US-centered political debates created short-term uncertainty. According to the New York Times, allegations that an investigation has been launched against Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell in connection with the interest rate policy dispute and the $ 2.5 billion headquarters building renovation have been brought to the agenda. While the news in question increased the debate about the perceptual power of the dollar, the price of Bitcoin reacted positively, albeit limited, on the same day.
Matthew Sigel from asset management company VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin rose by approximately 1 percent despite the political noise. According to Sigel, this move occurred without any change in the supply program and once again revealed the sensitivity of the largest cryptocurrency to macro uncertainties.
Diverging Signals in Technical View
On the technical analysis front, the picture is more complex. EGRAG CRYPTO noted that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI indicator has fallen below the 60 level and momentum has shifted from neutral to slightly negative territory. Although the indicator shows signs of curling upwards, it is stated that the buyer side has not yet provided a strong confirmation.
On the other hand, investors such as Crypto Chase argue that the hesitation in the $ 92,000-93,000 band indicates that demand appetite remains weak. The weekly loss of key moving averages above $101,000 strengthened the bearish structure and created an intense resistance zone around $96,000, according to some market participants.
Price performance reflects the search for a horizontal equilibrium in the short term. While Bitcoin rose about 1 percent in the last 24 hours, it recorded a limited loss on a weekly scale. Although it remains slightly positive on the monthly chart, it is trading approximately 27 percent below the peak of nearly $126,000 seen in October 2025. Benchmarks like Puell Multiple and MVRV cited by CryptosRus point to a mid-cycle break away from overheating levels.
