After a brief rebound, crypto bulls have hit the brakes. Most top tokens are trading flat, with Bitcoin price holding its recent gains and Ethereum price staying firm above $3,100, signaling steady demand. Now, the market is heading into a three-day catalyst cluster that could trigger sharp, headline-driven swings. Key U.S. events line up back-to-back this week—the CPI inflation print, Senate consideration of the CLARITY Act, and a Supreme Court ruling tied to U.S. tariffs—all capable of flipping risk sentiment in minutes.
Adding to the tension, President Trump has floated a fresh tariff regime, reviving chatter of a potential “tariff war.” With BTC and ETH consolidating near key levels, traders are watching one question closely: do these headlines spark a risk-off flush that cracks support, or do majors absorb the volatility and hold their ground?
Jan 13: U.S. Inflation Reading (CPI)
The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics has CPI scheduled for Tuesday, Jan 13, 2026. This data point matters because it directly shapes how markets price the path of U.S. monetary policy—and that pricing flows through to yields, the dollar (DXY), and risk assets.
How crypto typically reacts:
- Hotter-than-expected CPI: yields tend to jump, the dollar firms, and risk assets often sell first. BTC can drop quickly as leverage unwinds.
- Softer CPI: yields often cool, the dollar eases, and BTC tends to catch a bid as risk sentiment improves.
This doesn’t mean CPI “decides” the trend. It often decides the week’s volatility regime, whether markets punish leverage or reward it.
Jan 14: Supreme Court Rulings on Trump’s Tariffs
The Supreme Court is scheduled to issue rulings on January 14, and reporting indicates tariff-related issues are among what markets are watching.
Tariff rulings and tariff headlines can shift “risk-on/risk-off.” When markets start pricing slower growth, retaliation, or trade disruption, liquidity often moves into the dollar and away from high-beta assets—crypto included.
Think of it as a sentiment accelerant: it can amplify whatever CPI sets in motion.
Jan 15: CLARITY Act in the Senate
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R.3633) is a major U.S. crypto market structure bill, and it’s on the Hill’s radar this week. The bill text and status are on Congress.gov, and at minimum, it keeps regulatory clarity in the headlines.
Why traders care:
- Positive momentum headlines can lift sentiment for majors and U.S.-exposed tokens.
- Contentious revisions, delays, or political pushback can do the opposite.
Even without final passage, this can drive a narrative bid or narrative fade, especially if macro is already volatile.
The Core Risk: Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat
AS per the recent reports, Trump said any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on trade with the U.S. The report specifically pointed to countries with Iran trade ties, such as China, the UAE, and India. The headline is big, but details on scope and authority were not clearly laid out at the time.
Will there be a tariff war again?
It’s plausible, but not automatic. The markets may trade the fear before they trade the policy, which may kick off the volatility of the markets. As seen in previous times, the markets plunged significantly and remained under bearish influence for a while. However, the markets recovered then and may also recover, pushing the bullish rally for some time.
Impact on Bitcoin and Altcoins
Bitcoin price has already begun to consolidate within a tight range as the traders are keeping a close watch on the upcoming events. In the first reaction window, BTC often trades like a high-liquidity risk asset. If CPI is hot or tariff fear spikes, BTC can see fast downside wicks as leverage gets flushed. On the other hand, if CPI is soft and tariff headlines de-escalate, BTC usually rebounds first and drags majors with it.
BTC can sometimes benefit later from “uncertainty” narratives, but that tends to show up after the initial liquidation phase, not during it. Secondly, Altcoins typically overreact in both directions. They dive deeper if the BTC price plunges and also display sharper bounces otherwise, but tend to be more fragile.
What Traders Can Expect This Week
Expect fast, headline-driven volatility rather than a clean trend. CPI can move yields and the dollar within minutes, the tariff ruling can swing risk sentiment mid-session, and CLARITY Act headlines can trigger sudden pumps or fades in majors and U.S.-linked tokens. That means BTC and ETH may show sharp wicks on both sides before choosing direction, while alts likely amplify the move either way.
For traders, this week demands execution over prediction: reduce position size, avoid heavy leverage into event windows, and trade confirmed breaks instead of first reactions. Keep invalidation levels tight, watch DXY and U.S. yields alongside BTC, and be ready for a “tariff war” headline to flip the tape quickly. If support holds through the news cycle, upside continuation stays on the table, but if they crack, the market can turn risk-off in a hurry.
