The cryptocurrency market continues to search for direction as we enter the new year. Experienced market commentator Ran Neuner said that the chart has given more constructive signals in recent days compared to previous weeks, but optimism still needs to be tested. Although technical indicators and investor behavior point to the possibility of recovery, the view that the next move will determine the fate of the market stands out. Especially long-term averages play a critical role in determining which scenario the price will move towards.
Changing Balances in the Technical Outlook
The most striking development right after the new year was that Bitcoin overcame its short-term downtrend and rose above the 50-day moving average. According to Neuner, the real importance of this movement was revealed when the price later pulled back, tested the same level and held there. This behavior, which is frequently observed in technical analysis, indicates that the market is gaining strength rather than weakening.
The fact that a similar structure is seen in the charts of Ethereum, Solana and XRP makes the possibility of recovery more meaningful. Unlike the rise specific to a single asset, movements that spread throughout the market suggest that investor perception has begun to change. Neuner emphasizes that this simultaneous outlook shows that risk appetite is gradually returning.
In addition to the technical structure, the price starting to form higher bottoms and higher tops stands out as another frequently observed element in recovery processes. The increase in the relative performance of altcoins and the decline in Bitcoin dominance also imply that investors are starting to take bolder positions.
Critical Levels and Possible Scenarios
The most important threshold that Neuner draws attention to is the 200-day moving average, which is around $107,000. Historically, in strong bull markets the price settles above this level, while in weak periods the same point becomes the center of sharp rejections. Therefore, the upcoming test will determine whether the current rise will be permanent or temporary.
The weekly chart presents a more cautious picture. Bitcoin’s slide below its 50-week average has often heralded deeper corrections in previous cycles. In past examples, when the price could not return to this level and remain permanent, it fell towards the 200-week average. According to current calculations, this area corresponds to approximately 60,000 dollars.
On the demand side, it is noteworthy that US-based investors are back on the scene. The fact that the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase is at a premium compared to other exchanges shows that the appetite of American buyers has increased. Neuner reminds that most of the previous rises similarly started with demand from the USA.
