Bitcoin price continues to find buyers below $91,000, and investors are nervous ahead of today’s Supreme Court decision. US employment data, which came minutes ago and was announced at the last minute, shows that the unemployment rate has suddenly fallen from its peak in recent years. Missing data during the closure period already pointed to such a risk. So what about cryptocurrencies?
US Data and Interest Rate Cut
for january interest rate reduction expectations are now almost zero. The unemployment rate was below expectations and what was announced the previous month. In other words, the Fed members’ statements that “there is no major collapse on the employment front, we supported this with 3 interest rate cuts in 2025” have been somewhat underlined. Therefore, the market expectation for 2026 dropped to 50bp level.
trump While he and his team expect a discount of up to 10 basis points, all eyes will be on the inflation report. If next week’s inflation report comes in above expectations, the Fed will not have much reason to cut interest rates in the near future and they will continue to take policy slowly for a soft landing.
Important details in the report;
- Non-Agricultural Inflation data announced for November was revised down by 8 thousand.
- Retail lost 25,000 jobs in December, with a reduction of 19,000 jobs in general stores such as supermarkets.
- In December, average hourly earnings for all workers on private nonfarm payrolls increased 0.3 percent to $37.02.
- Long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) was at 1.9 million in December, an increase of 397,000 from a year ago, although it was “little changed during the month.”
- The average monthly employment gain in 2025 (49,000) was well behind 2024 (168,000).
Effect on Cryptocurrencies
The result is not surprising for investors after the report is published. BTC price Even though it experienced an increase of 200-300 dollars, it turned its direction downwards again. It is possible that $90 thousand will be lost in the coming hours because annual interest rate cut expectations are revised downwards. The Fed will be under the control of the person Trump chooses after May this year, but if employment recovers, the Fed, which has to stick to the data, may not be able to make a reduction despite its new president.
The December inflation report coming next week will give us a clearer idea of this year’s interest rate cut route. For now, the “shrinkage in employment” signals that necessitate interest rate cuts in the last quarter of 2025 have weakened.
