lighter‘s altcoin, LIT coin, which has not yet been opened for free transactions, became the center of a harsh valuation debate in the cryptocurrency market on its first day. Pre-market pricing after AirDrop on Tuesday altcoinIt raised the question of whether ‘s fully diluted valuation will remain between $2 billion and $3 billion or will exceed this threshold. While investors question the extent to which FDV reflects real demand, especially for low-circulation coin launches, data in prediction markets indicate that uncertainty remains high. The discussions also made visible the increasing interest in Ethereum-based Layer-2 exchanges.
Valuation Controversy Surrounding LIT Coin
LIT coin, developed by Lighter and carrying a governance function, started to be priced with high expectations even before it was traded on the open market. While pre-market transactions saw the altcoin changing hands at approximately $3.20, this figure indicates a fully diluted valuation of over $3 billion when calculated based on maximum supply. This approach raised the question of how representative the theoretical market value was of reality, especially in the early stages when the amount of coins in circulation was limited.
FDV calculation is based on the assumption that all coins are released. But in many recent launches, the bulk of supply remains locked up while a small amount of free float can push the price up, creating billion-dollar valuations at the headline level. Before Monad, EigenLayer And movement The picture seen in projects such as this explains why the comments made for LIT are cautious.
What Do Prediction Markets and Volume Data Say?
Valuation disagreements are not limited to pre-market prices. Prediction market platform polymarket According to data, investors expect the odds of LIT to exceed the $3 billion FDV threshold on its first day after launch to be almost a coin toss. is evaluating. On the other hand, the probability of more ambitious scenarios such as 4 billion and 6 billion dollars has decreased significantly after the sharp market fluctuation in October.
In terms of comparison, compared to competing platforms hyperliquid‘s HYPE coin was launched in November last year with an FDV of approximately $4.2 billion. Lighter’s operational data points to a strong usage chart. Analysis platform dune Data shows that an average daily futures transaction volume of 2.7 billion dollars has been generated on the platform in the last week. This level uses Lighter only for Hyperliquid and astersIt allows it to be positioned behind.
